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Oklahoma Republican Governor Primary Runoff Margin of Victory
Politics
polymarket

Oklahoma Republican Governor Primary Runoff Margin of Victory

Aug 20, 2026, 5:40 PM EST - Aug 25, 2026, 7:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$1,290
Volume 24h:
$566N/A
Liquidity:
$43,255
7,582%
Open interest:
$744N/A

Mazzei <5%

 - Polymarket

Mazzei <5% - Polymarket

100%

+13%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 20

Aug 21

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Aug 25

Aug 27

Vol.

$44.0

·

Resolves Aug 25, 2026

Will Mike Mazzei win the Oklahoma Republican Governor primary runoff by less than 5%?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: N/A Illiquid market
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Outcome
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24h
7d
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Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 12

Description

Primary runoff elections in Oklahoma are scheduled to be held on August 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the two candidates in the Oklahoma Republican Gubernatorial Primary Runoff. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Oklahoma, such as official statewide results published by the Oklahoma State Election Board; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Polymarket

Primary runoff elections in Oklahoma are scheduled to be held on August 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the two candidates in the Oklahoma Republican Gubernatorial Primary Runoff. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Oklahoma, such as official statewide results published by the Oklahoma State Election Board; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Oklahoma GOP governor runoff margin market tracks real-time odds, price fluctuations, and 24-hour volume of $1,100. It provides a visual representation of how traders on Polymarket are pricing the potential margin of victory in this key Republican primary runoff. The interface updates continuously to reflect market activity, giving users insight into speculative sentiment surrounding the race.

On Polymarket, this market reflects trader sentiment about the Republican primary runoff margin, but it isn’t a direct mirror of public polling averages. Polling aggregates voter intent, while this market prices in factors like campaign momentum, fundraising strength, and strategic dynamics. Traders may weigh additional variables beyond raw voter preferences, such as media coverage and late-breaking scandals. Consequently, this market can diverge from polls when professional bettors anticipate shifts that surveys have not yet captured. The gap between 100.0% and polling averages often signals where market participants see value or risk differently than the broader electorate.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set prices through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers agree on odds and potential payouts. The current implied chance of each possible margin range is displayed as a percentage, derived from the best available bids and asks. Liquidity levels, represented by volume of $1,290, influence how easily positions can be opened or closed without moving the market price significantly.

This market resolves around Aug 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official election results are verified against credible public sources. The final margin of victory will be calculated from certified vote tallies, determining which predefined range — or exact number, if the market allows it — is the correct resolution. Traders’ positions are settled based on this verified result.

Between now and Aug 25, 2026, several key signals could shift this market. Debates, endorsements, and major campaign announcements often reshape trader expectations about the margin outcome. Fundraising disclosures and polling updates in the weeks ahead may also drive volatility, especially if they reveal a widening or narrowing gap. Media coverage of controversies or missteps by either candidate can rapidly alter perceptions, moving odds in either direction. As the election approaches, traders will react to any data that hints at voter fatigue, turnout efforts, or late-deciding blocs, all of which feed into this market’s price action.