TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 2:02 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of views the most recent YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 7 days after being posted. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration. The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers only to the video "Eat Everything In A Grocery Store, Win $1,000,000" by MrBeast (see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plN7JMbadRg).
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of views the most recent YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 7 days after being posted. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration. The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers only to the video "Eat Everything In A Grocery Store, Win $1,000,000" by MrBeast (see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plN7JMbadRg).
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. While analysts often provide point estimates for the number of views, this market aggregates the predictions of many individuals, potentially leading to a more accurate forecast. Currently, the market's implied probability distribution differs from typical analyst expectations, which generally focus on extrapolating from MrBeast’s previous video performance. This difference highlights the market’s ability to incorporate a wider range of factors and potential surprises.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price fluctuates based on new information and changing sentiment, providing a dynamic assessment of the potential viewership for the next MrBeast video. Higher demand for shares indicating higher views drives up the price, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official view count for the next MrBeast video is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of views the video receives within the first seven days of its release. The market will then settle based on whether the actual view count falls into one of the predefined brackets. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Announcements regarding the video’s content, collaborations with other popular creators, or the timing of the release could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected news related to MrBeast or his channel could also cause shifts in the market. Additionally, changes in YouTube’s algorithm or broader trends in online video consumption could impact expectations for viewership, leading to adjustments in the price of shares in this market.
