TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 2:10 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks the number of views MrBeast Gaming’s next YouTube video will receive within its first week (168 hours) after posting. Currently, Polymarket gives an 87.5% probability to the video achieving between 30 and 35 million views during that timeframe, while the second most likely outcome – 35 to 40 million views – is at 11.3%. Resolution will be based on the view count reported on MrBeast Gaming’s official YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeastGaming). Keep an eye on whether a new video is posted before October 3, 2026, as this date represents the estimated resolution date and the end of the observation window for view counts.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast Gaming gets in the first 168 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 168 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If MrBeast Gaming does not post a YouTube video by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast Gaming's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeastGaming), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast Gaming's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinions. For this market, analysts’ predictions about the number of views MrBeast Gaming will receive in the first week may align with or diverge from the probabilities reflected in the odds on Polymarket. If the market odds are significantly different, it suggests that traders possess information or perspectives not fully captured by traditional analysis. This discrepancy can be valuable for understanding potential biases or overlooked factors influencing the outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the final number of views. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The current price indicates the market’s expectation, and changes in price signal shifts in sentiment regarding MrBeast Gaming’s viewership potential.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of views for the specified MrBeast Gaming video during its first week will be sourced from publicly available data. This data will be used to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual views received, and shares will be settled accordingly. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s result.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Early viewership numbers upon the video’s release will be a major catalyst, as they provide an initial indication of its popularity. Any promotional efforts by MrBeast or collaborations with other prominent creators could also impact views. Unexpected controversies or viral challenges related to the video could also drive viewership. Finally, broader trends in gaming content consumption and YouTube algorithm changes could influence the final outcome of this market.
