TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The Avalanches' new song "No Bad Memories" will be closely watched for its performance in its debut week. Music analysts will assess whether the track garners significant listener engagement, reflecting its potential impact on the band's career and current trends in electronic music.
Kalshi
Multiple markets exist for the U.S. tracking week of October 16–22, 2026, each requiring progressively higher stream thresholds (50K, 100K, 250K, 500K, 1M, 2M, 3.5M, 5M, 7.5M, 10M) for "No Bad Memories" by The Avalanches to resolve as Yes. All markets use Luminate’s API data reported at 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday after the tracking week. Luminate Data, LLC serves as a neutral metrics provider and does not endorse or influence market outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a unique perspective, potentially identifying factors that traditional analysis might overlook. While analysts may offer predictions based on established models, the wisdom of the crowd in this market incorporates a broader range of information and subjective assessments. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of uncertainty or disagreement regarding the likely outcome of the No Bad Memories streams.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher its price will climb. Conversely, if sentiment shifts towards a different outcome, its price will increase while others decrease. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective assessment of the event’s potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on determining which streams are considered to have “bad memories” according to the established criteria of the event. The final outcome will be based on publicly available information and will be assessed against the specific conditions outlined for the No Bad Memories streams. The resolution process aims to provide a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any official announcements regarding the streams, changes in viewership numbers, or unexpected content within the streams themselves could all influence trader sentiment. Positive or negative reception from key influencers or the broader online community could also drive price fluctuations. Furthermore, any controversies or unexpected developments related to the content creators involved could have a substantial impact on how this market is priced leading up to the resolution date.
