TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
polymarket
kalshi

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Total volume:
$1,289,053
Volume 24h:
$67,062
19%
Liquidity:
$486,668
13%
Open interest:
$11,087
1%

Aleksandar Vučić

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2028

Will Aleksandar Vučić become Prime Minister of Serbia following the next Serbian general election?

72%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 74¢ buys you 135 shares | Odds: 72% Total Payout: $135 | Net Profit: $35 Multiplier: 1.35x | ROI: 35% | APY: 15% 808 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Aleksandar Vučić

Trade
72%
Yes 74¢No 29¢
3¢
N/A
$10,405
1%
7%
$4,464
2y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

Aleksandar Vučić

Trade
69%
1%
Yes 69.3¢No 30.8¢
0.1¢
$144,097
$865,391
7%
55%
N/A
1w 3d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
69.3%
Yes 71.6¢No 29.9¢
Avg: 1.6¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

Person B

Trade
22%
5%
Yes 23¢No 80¢
3¢
$46,743
$185,507
4%
45%
N/A
1w 3d 19h
active
polymarket

Ivica Dačić

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 98¢
2¢
$50,528
$34,712
1%
102%
N/A
1w 3d 19h
active
kalshi

Ivica Dačić

Trade
1%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$36
0%
0%
$35
2y 2mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3%
Yes 4¢No 98.5¢
Avg: 2.5¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

Person A

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 2.7¢No 98.3¢
1¢
$48,630
$40,104
2%
64%
N/A
1w 3d 19h
active
kalshi

Ana Brnabić

Trade
6%
Yes 4¢No 98¢
2¢
N/A
$5,197
0%
8%
$4,939
2y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

Ana Brnabić

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.8¢
0.3¢
$35,221
$39,015
0%
31%
N/A
1w 3d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 2.3¢No 98.9¢
Avg: 1.2¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Stefan Krkobabić

Trade
7%
Yes 4¢No 98¢
2¢
N/A
$1,081
0%
0%
$779
2y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

Stefan Krkobabić

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$43,758
$25,424
0%
59%
N/A
1w 3d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.5%
Yes 2.2¢No 98.9¢
Avg: 1.1¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Miloš Vučević

Trade
7%
Yes 5¢No 98¢
3¢
N/A
$1,041
0%
0%
$835
2y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

Miloš Vučević

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$23,983
$19,113
0%
63%
N/A
1w 3d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.5%
Yes 2.6¢No 99¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

Đuro Macut

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$40,270
$23,163
0%
43%
N/A
1w 3d 19h
active
kalshi

Dragan Đilas

Trade
1%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$35
0%
0%
$35
2y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

Dragan Đilas

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$27,637
$24,412
0%
36%
N/A
1w 3d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 2.1¢No 99.5¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

Branimir Jovanović

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$25,801
$14,417
0%
6%
N/A
1w 3d 19h
active
kalshi

Ilija Srdanović

Trade
N/A
N/A
7¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2y 2mo 2w
active
Total markets: 17

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of who will become the next Prime Minister of Serbia following the next Serbian general election. Currently, the consensus probability favors Aleksandar Vučić to assume the office, at 77.0%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on the next individual officially sworn in as Prime Minister, according to a consensus of credible reporting. Will Person B become the next Prime Minister of Serbia has a probability of 18.0%. Keep an eye on the Serbian National Assembly elections, as the outcome will likely determine the next Prime Minister by the resolution date of December 31, 2028.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi ties resolution to the next general election, while Polymarket has a fixed deadline of June 30, 2028, regardless of election timing.Hero tip: Focus on candidates likely to emerge from the next election to mitigate risk. Be aware that a delayed election could lead to different resolutions between platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the next Prime Minister assuming office by June 30, 2028, based on credible reporting or official information. Doesn't explicitly require a general election.
  • Kalshi: Resolves if a candidate becomes Prime Minister *following the next Serbian general election* and meets constitutional requirements by Dec 31, 2028.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.

Kalshi

Following Serbia's next general election, the market resolves to Yes for whichever candidate is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to constitutional procedures, commands parliamentary confidence, and exercises full executive powers in a substantive (not caretaker) capacity before December 31, 2028. The resolution reflects the first person to meet these criteria as a direct result of post-election government formation. If no government successfully forms by the deadline, the market resolves to "No one" if available as an option, otherwise No for all individual candidates. If new elections are called before government formation is completed, the market immediately resolves to "No one" (or No for all candidates if that option is unavailable), and subsequent elections do not trigger new resolution events.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, the Serbian Prime Minister market dashboard tracks the probability of various candidates becoming the next Prime Minister of Serbia. This is achieved through a dynamic pricing mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $1,289,053, with $66,955 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard provides a consensus view of the likelihood of different outcomes in the Serbian Prime Minister market, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on those preferences. This can lead to divergences, as prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information, including qualitative factors and potential strategic considerations. Historically, prediction markets have demonstrated a strong track record of accuracy, sometimes exceeding that of polls, especially when forecasting political events. The current implied probability from this market may or may not align with the latest polling data for Serbia.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can differ due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading volume, and liquidity, which can influence price discovery. Additionally, the specific contract details and available trading options may vary between the two venues. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? at 69.3%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Aleksandar Vučić become Prime Minister of Serbia following the next Serbian general election? at 72.0%. These differences highlight the dynamic nature of prediction markets and the impact of platform-specific factors.

This market resolves around Dec 31, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which individual is officially appointed as the Prime Minister of Serbia following any necessary elections or political processes. The outcome will be determined by widely accepted sources of information, such as official government announcements and reputable news organizations. The final price of this market will reflect the probability of the ultimately successful outcome at the time of resolution.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major political developments in Serbia, such as snap elections, shifts in party alliances, or significant policy announcements, would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected endorsements or controversies surrounding key political figures could also move the market. Economic indicators, such as unemployment rates or GDP growth, might also influence traders' perceptions. Furthermore, any major geopolitical events impacting Serbia's stability could lead to shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market.