TOTAL VOLUME:

$141b

24H VOL:

$86,028,154

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,543,053,589

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,531,729,062

412,119

Markets across

32,733

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,814

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
polymarket

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

Volume:
$203,478

No release by September 30

 - Polymarket

No release by September 30 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 1, 2026

Closed: Oct 1, 2:04 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No release by September 30

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$165,616
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,153
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

On or prior to September 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,354
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 29

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,110
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 24

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$867
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 28

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$844
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 22

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$753
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 16

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$729
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 17

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$725
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 21

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$703
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 15

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$662
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 23

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$644
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 7

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$624
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$617
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$592
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 26

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$480
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$478
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 4

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$478
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 13

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$476
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$463
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$434
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 14

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$409
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 12

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$408
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 10

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$396
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$391
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Gemini Pro model release market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, volume stands at $43,105 and total volume has reached $203,478. This allows traders to monitor the market's activity and see how sentiment is shifting regarding the timing of the next Gemini Pro model release. The dashboard provides a visual representation of the market’s dynamics, helping participants make informed decisions about their positions in this market.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a lower probability of a new Gemini Pro model being released by the resolution date. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts that anticipated a release within the next year. It’s important to note that analyst predictions are often based on company announcements and industry trends, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. The difference highlights how prediction markets can offer a unique perspective, potentially incorporating information not readily available to traditional analysts.

This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Google officially announces the release of a new Gemini Pro model before the specified date. The market will then close, and shares will be settled based on whether the outcome occurred. Traders who correctly predicted the timing of the release will profit, while those who predicted incorrectly will lose their investment. The outcome will be determined by publicly available information.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. A formal announcement from Google regarding the development or release timeline of a new Gemini Pro model would be a major catalyst. Unexpected delays in the AI development landscape, or major technological breakthroughs from competitors, could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, any official statements from key figures at Google about their AI strategy could influence the market. Positive or negative news regarding Google’s AI research and development efforts will likely be reflected in the price action of this market.