TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.1b

24H VOL:

$145,659,050

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,307,417,995

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,157,167,594

322,140

Markets across

31,472

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,914

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
polymarket

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM EST - Sep 30, 2026, 7:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$8,435
Volume 24h:
$1,233
75%
Liquidity:
$35,788
83%
Open interest:
$1,134N/A

No release by September 30

 - Polymarket

No release by September 30 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 30, 2026

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?

77%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 78¢ buys you 128 shares | Odds: 77% Total Payout: $128 | Net Profit: $28 Multiplier: 1.28x | ROI: 28% High Projected APY: 813% 41 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No release by September 30

Trade
77%
6%
Yes 78¢No 24¢
2¢
$1,334
$4,875
34%
N/A
N/A
1mo 1w 4d
active
polymarket

On or prior to September 1

Trade
9%
Yes 10.3¢No 93¢
3.3¢
$1,622
$291
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 3h
active
polymarket

September 30

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 6¢No 98¢
4¢
$962
$177
0%
N/A
N/A
1mo 1w 4d
active
polymarket

September 7

Trade
3%
2%
Yes 4.7¢No 98.9¢
3.6¢
$1,294
$98
0%
N/A
N/A
2w 4d 3h
active
polymarket

September 4

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 4.7¢No 99¢
3.7¢
$1,044
$98
0%
N/A
N/A
2w 1d 3h
active
polymarket

September 3

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 4.6¢No 99¢
3.6¢
$1,043
$98
0%
N/A
N/A
2w 3h
active
polymarket

September 5

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 4.6¢No 99¢
3.6¢
$1,046
$98
0%
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 3h
active
polymarket

September 23

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
$1,114
$98
0%
N/A
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

September 2

Trade
2%
Yes 3.9¢No 99¢
2.9¢
$1,124
$108
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 3h
active
polymarket

September 29

Trade
2%
Yes 3.3¢No 99¢
2.3¢
$1,199
$168
0%
N/A
N/A
1mo 1w 3d
active
polymarket

September 12

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 4¢No 99.8¢
3.8¢
$1,110
$98
0%
N/A
N/A
3w 2d 3h
active
polymarket

September 19

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 4¢No 99.8¢
3.8¢
$1,110
$98
0%
N/A
N/A
1mo
active
polymarket

September 24

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 4¢No 99.8¢
3.8¢
$1,187
$98
0%
N/A
N/A
1mo 5d
active
polymarket

September 17

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 3.9¢No 99.8¢
3.7¢
$1,157
$98
0%
N/A
N/A
4w 3h
active
polymarket

September 25

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 3.9¢No 99.8¢
3.7¢
$1,116
$98
0%
N/A
N/A
1mo 6d
active
polymarket

September 16

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 3.9¢No 99.8¢
3.7¢
$1,077
$98
0%
N/A
N/A
3w 6d 3h
active
polymarket

September 20

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 3.9¢No 99.8¢
3.7¢
$1,068
$98
0%
N/A
N/A
1mo 1d
active
polymarket

September 22

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 3.9¢No 99.8¢
3.7¢
$1,075
$98
0%
N/A
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

September 11

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 3.9¢No 99.8¢
3.7¢
$1,119
$98
0%
N/A
N/A
3w 1d 3h
active
polymarket

September 15

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 3.9¢No 99.8¢
3.7¢
$1,079
$98
0%
N/A
N/A
3w 5d 3h
active
polymarket

September 27

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 3.7¢No 99.8¢
3.5¢
$1,094
$98
0%
N/A
N/A
1mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

September 18

Trade
1%
Yes 2.6¢No 99.8¢
2.4¢
$1,138
$101
0%
N/A
N/A
4w 1d 3h
active
polymarket

September 28

Trade
1%
3%
Yes 1.8¢No 99.8¢
1.6¢
$1,304
$89
0%
N/A
N/A
1mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

September 8

Trade
1%
Yes 1.7¢No 99.9¢
1.6¢
$1,246
$90
0%
N/A
N/A
2w 5d 3h
active
polymarket

September 6

Trade
1%
Yes 1.6¢No 99.9¢
1.5¢
$1,079
$83
0%
N/A
N/A
2w 3d 3h
active
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Gemini Pro Model release market dashboard tracks the latest odds and price movements for when the next version will be released, along with 24-hour volume of $955. It shows how traders on Polymarket are positioning around this timeline, offering a real-time view of market sentiment and activity for the Gemini Pro Model release market.

Currently, this market suggests a 77.0% probability for the most likely release window, which can diverge from traditional analyst forecasts that may rely on different data sources or corporate timelines. Analysts often weigh factors like development cycles and past release patterns, while traders react to news, rumors, and technical indicators that may shift expectations before the final outcome is confirmed.

On Polymarket, this market uses a decentralized betting pool where traders buy and sell contracts representing possible release dates. The current probability reflects the ratio of yes to no shares outstanding. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Market depth and liquidity can shift the implied odds, especially as new information emerges about development timelines or official announcements from the company.

This market resolves around Sep 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The exact release date will be compared against the market’s listed options, and the first source to clearly announce the official launch determines the result.

Key developments like official announcements, developer updates, beta testing schedules, or delays in AI infrastructure could significantly impact this market. Analyst reports forecasting timeline adjustments, competitive releases from other firms, and regulatory news may also shift trader sentiment. Any concrete signal from the company about roadmap changes will likely cause rapid repricing.