TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.2b

24H VOL:

$81,517,990

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,351,258,445

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,140,494,451

319,225

Markets across

31,623

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,653

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

Time left: 06d:10h:50m

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?

94%chance
Amount

$

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Outcome
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Volume
24h
7d
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Description

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

Compared to analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a more nuanced outlook by incorporating real-time trader sentiment and short-term speculation. While analysts may provide detailed roadmaps and official timelines, prediction market odds can shift rapidly with new rumors, tech demos, or competitive announcements, offering a dynamic alternative view of when the next major AI model will arrive.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this market is priced through trader activity, where the current probability reflects collective expectations about the release timing. The top outcome’s implied chance is shown as 93.5%, with volume of $304,935 indicating liquidity and interest. Prices adjust continuously as new information emerges about product timelines or competitive moves.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The exact date will be settled based on official announcements or widely reported confirmations of the new model’s release, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.

Key signals that could shift this market include official developer announcements, beta testing schedules, competitor product launches, and major AI conferences or trade shows. Any indication of delays, accelerated timelines, or surprise previews can cause rapid price movements, reflecting updated expectations about when the next generation of AI capabilities will be unveiled.