TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Next Claude Opus released on...?
polymarket
kalshi

When will the next Claude Opus be released?

Total volume:
$554,321
Volume 24h:
$393,461
482%
Liquidity:
$0
100%
Open interest:
$24,710
0.01%

Before Dec 1, 2026

 - Kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2026 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 1, 2026

Time left: 17d:10h:25m

Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Dec 1, 2026?

12%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 20¢ buys you 500 shares | Odds: 12% Total Payout: $500 | Net Profit: $400 Multiplier: 5.00x | ROI: 400% APY not meaningful 17 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2026

Trade
12%
Yes 20¢No 87¢
7¢
N/A
$15
0%
N/A
$15
2w 3d 10h
active
kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

Trade
6%
Yes 9¢No 94¢
3¢
N/A
$21,352
0%
0.15%
$5,952
2w 3d 10h
active
kalshi

Before Oct 16, 2026

Trade
2%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$13,923
0%
0%
$7,900
2w 3d 10h
active
kalshi

Before Nov 16, 2026

Trade
N/A
N/A
8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 3d 10h
active
polymarket

September 22

View
100%
25%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$181,525
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

September 21

View
0%
41%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$169,566
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 24

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32,906
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 23

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,839
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

No release by September 30

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,989
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 25

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,238
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Before Sep 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,325
N/A
N/A
$5,000
2w 3d 10h
No
polymarket

September 26

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,925
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 29

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,466
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,343
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,445
N/A
N/A
$2,305
2w 3d 10h
No
polymarket

September 27

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,526
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Before Sep 16, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,464
N/A
N/A
$3,538
2w 3d 10h
No
polymarket

September 28

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,322
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,172
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 19

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$669
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 17

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$620
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 18

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$542
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

On or prior to September 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$149
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 23

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of Anthropic releasing its Opus 6 large language model before December 1, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of a release before that date is 12.0%, with a 6.0% probability for release before November 1, 2026. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on official information from Anthropic, with verification from credible reporting. Keep an eye on Anthropic’s official announcements, as the resolution date estimate of November 1, 2026 represents the end of the betting period and the window for determining if Opus 6 has been publicly released.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Kalshi and Polymarket agree on the core criteria for resolution: public accessibility of a model explicitly named 'Opus' by Anthropic, excluding prior releases like Claude Opus 5.Primary resolution logic: Official information from Anthropic, with verification from credible reporting.

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to 'Yes' if Anthropic releases a new Claude Opus model (e.g., Opus 6, Opus 5.1) before a specified date.
  • A qualifying release must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or waitlist, and not limited to closed betas or private access.
  • Models under other names (Sonnet, Haiku, etc.) do not qualify unless explicitly renamed 'Opus' by Anthropic.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Labeling Errors: If Anthropic's website incorrectly labels a model as 'Opus' but it's not actually publicly accessible, the market will not resolve 'Yes'.
  • Re-releases/Snapshots: Re-releases or snapshots of Claude Opus 5, or any version prior to the next major Opus release, do not qualify.
Timing: Resolution will occur upon Anthropic's official announcement and confirmation of public accessibility of the new Claude Opus model, as verified by credible reporting. The exact timing will depend on Anthropic's release process.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public. Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Kalshi

The event resolves to Yes if Anthropic publicly releases Opus 6 before any of the specified dates between September 1, 2026, and November 1, 2026. A valid release must be made available to the general public, not confined to a closed beta, though it may be offered initially through a high-cost subscription tier. The market evaluates multiple sequential deadlines, with the earliest qualifying release triggering a Yes outcome for all corresponding markets. If no such public release occurs before the final deadline of November 1, 2026, all markets resolve to No.

Frequently asked questions

Prices for the next Claude release can vary between Polymarket and Kalshi due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying expertise and risk tolerance, leading to differing opinions on the likelihood of various outcomes. Trading volume and liquidity also play a role; a higher volume on one platform can lead to more efficient price discovery. Furthermore, the specific market structures and available contract types on each platform can influence trading behavior and, consequently, prices. These differences create opportunities for arbitrage and reflect the decentralized nature of prediction markets.

This market is scheduled to resolve around Nov 1, 2026. The outcome will be determined by verifying the official release date of the next Claude Opus model against credible public reporting. The release date will be based on Anthropic's official announcement and widespread availability of the new model to users. Any ambiguity regarding the release date will be evaluated based on publicly available information and industry consensus. The aim is to determine the date the model is generally accessible, not internal testing or limited previews.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from Anthropic regarding the development or testing of the next Claude model would be a major catalyst. Leaks or credible reports from industry insiders could also shift prices. Major breakthroughs in AI research or unexpected delays in development could influence trader sentiment. Additionally, competitor announcements – such as new model releases from OpenAI or Google – could indirectly affect expectations for the Claude release timeline. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding price movements in this market.