TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by...?
polymarket

Will Claude Opus be released?

Sep 23, 2026, 7:54 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 6:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$9,214
Volume 24h:
$1,963
457%
Liquidity:
$1,030
8%
Open interest:
$2,017N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Next Claude Opus released by December 31, 2026?

87%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 90¢ buys you 111 shares | Odds: 87% Total Payout: $111 | Net Profit: $11 Multiplier: 1.11x | ROI: 11% | APY: 65% Low liquidity 77 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
87%
1%
Yes 90¢No 16¢
6¢
$39
$2,029
0%
12%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

November 30

Trade
68%
12%
Yes 69¢No 34¢
3¢
$849
$5,427
57%
122%
N/A
1mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

October 31

Trade
7%
Yes 9¢No 95¢
4¢
$142
$1,758
0.06%
120%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
Total markets: 3

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the next Claude Opus release tracks the probabilities associated with various entities being the first to release the model. Currently, the displayed odds reflect what traders are willing to pay to own a share in each possible outcome. You can also view the 24-hour volume, which indicates how much trading activity has occurred recently, and the total volume traded to date. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market sentiment regarding the timing and identity of the next Claude Opus release.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion regarding the next Claude Opus release. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional polls or analyst predictions, potentially incorporating a wider range of information and reacting more quickly to new developments. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into the potential for surprise outcomes and the overall uncertainty surrounding this event.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly, creating a dynamic representation of market sentiment. The current prices are determined solely by supply and demand within Polymarket, reflecting the aggregated views of its user base regarding the next Claude Opus release.

This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the release of the next Claude Opus model is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official announcement from Anthropic regarding the launch of their next Opus-level model. The specific date and details of the release will be used to determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders should monitor official announcements and reputable tech news sources for updates as the resolution date approaches.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from Anthropic regarding development progress, timelines, or features of the next Claude Opus release would be major catalysts. Leaks or credible reports from industry insiders could also cause substantial shifts in probabilities. Unexpected advancements in competing AI models could influence perceptions of Anthropic’s competitive position and, consequently, the market. Any news related to Anthropic's funding, partnerships, or regulatory challenges could also move the market.