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404,744

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2,691

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5

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VS.

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61%

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New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket
predict

Will either team score in the first inning of New York Y vs Boston?

Volume:
$599,601

Boston Red Sox

 - Polymarket

Boston Red Sox - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 29, 2026

Closed: Jun 28, 7:20 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Boston Red Sox

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Yes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$581,999
N/A
N/A
$462,276
Settled
No
predict

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$17,587
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

New York Yankees

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group aggregates three distinct prediction markets about the June 28, 2026 MLB game between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox at 7:20 PM ET. The markets span different scopes: whether any run is scored in the first inning (Kalshi), the full-game winner (Predict), and the score leader after exactly 5 innings (Polymarket). These represent fundamentally different settlement events and cannot be unified into a single coherent market group.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Three distinct settlement events grouped under one label. Kalshi resolves on first-inning run occurrence (binary), Predict on full-game winner (ternary with tie/cancel), and Polymarket on 5-inning score leader (ternary with draw). These events are logically independent and resolve at different times with incompatible criteria.Hero tip: Immediately segregate these three markets in your portfolio. Kalshi settles after inning 1 (approximately 30-45 minutes into the game). Polymarket settles after inning 5 (approximately 2.5 hours in). Predict settles after the full game (approximately 3-4 hours). A first-inning run does not determine the 5-inning leader or full-game winner. Price each independently.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary event: resolves YES if either team scores in the first inning only. Settles early (after inning 1). Key Quote: 'If either team scores a run in the first inning of the New York Y vs Boston professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jun 28, 2026 at 7:20 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Predict: Full-game winner market: resolves to Yankees, Red Sox, or 50-50 (if postponed indefinitely, canceled, or tied). Settles after game conclusion. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to New York Yankees if the New York Yankees win the game.'
  • Polymarket: 5-inning leader market: resolves to Yankees, Red Sox, or Draw (if tied after 5 innings). Settles after inning 5 only. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to New York Yankees if the New York Yankees is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, scheduled for June 28 at 7:20 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

If either team scores a run in the first inning of the New York Y vs Boston professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jun 28, 2026 at 7:20 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, scheduled for June 28 at 7:20PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on crowd-sourced pricing, where traders directly set odds through supply and demand rather than oddsmakers setting fixed lines. This often produces tighter, more efficient pricing because thousands of participants continuously adjust positions based on new information. Sportsbooks, by contrast, build in margins and adjust lines to balance action. For this market, prediction odds tend to move faster than traditional sportsbook lines when breaking news about lineups or injuries emerges, giving traders an edge in capturing early value shifts.

Key catalysts include lineup announcements, starting pitcher confirmations, and injury updates for either team's top hitters or pitchers. Weather conditions—wind speed and direction at the ballpark—significantly influence scoring probability in the first inning. Recent form trends, such as whether either team has been scoring early runs consistently, drive trader sentiment. Bullpen or defensive roster changes can also shift odds. Real-time updates during pre-game warm-ups and the national anthem period often trigger final repricing as traders lock in positions moments before first pitch.