TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of John Legend's song "Muse" during a specific week, focusing on how many times it is streamed in the U.S. The outcome depends on whether the stream count surpasses various thresholds, providing insight into the song's popularity and audience engagement over that period.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple streaming thresholds for John Legend's song "Muse" during the week of October 23 to October 29, 2026, in the U.S. All markets resolve based on data reported by Luminate’s API at 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday following the tracking week. Each market has a specific stream count threshold (ranging from 1 million to 20 million), and if the reported streams exceed the respective threshold, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Luminate Data, LLC serves as the neutral metrics provider and does not endorse or influence the outcomes of these markets.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of factors than traditional analysis, incorporating real-time sentiment and diverse perspectives. While analysts may focus on historical data and industry trends, the market incorporates a wider array of information, potentially leading to different expectations for Muse’s first week streams. Discrepancies between the two can highlight overlooked variables or differing interpretations of available data, offering a more nuanced view of the potential outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different streaming outcomes for Muse’s first week. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations regarding the success of Muse's new music. The current implied probabilities are driven by the collective actions of traders on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first-week streaming numbers for Muse are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total streams across major streaming platforms, as reported by official sources. The exact methodology for calculating the total streams will be determined by Kalshi and made available to traders prior to resolution. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome, reflecting the actual performance of Muse’s new release.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 1, 2026. Pre-release singles performing exceptionally well, or unexpectedly poorly, could shift expectations. Major media coverage, positive or negative reviews, and endorsements from influential figures would also likely impact trading activity. Any news regarding promotional campaigns, streaming platform exclusives, or potential controversies surrounding the album could also cause price fluctuations. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of Muse’s potential audience reach and engagement will likely influence the market’s direction.
