TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 8:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the first quarter in an upcoming college football game between Missouri and Mississippi State. Each market assesses different point spreads to determine which team will lead after the first 15 minutes of play.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first quarter of the Missouri vs Mississippi State college football game scheduled for September 26, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the specified team wins the first quarter by more than the stated point spread. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, markets remain open and resolve according to the actual first-quarter result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. The resolution depends exclusively on first-quarter performance, with no consideration given to the full game outcome.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by professional oddsmakers, while this market is driven by individuals making their own predictions and trading with each other. It’s common to see initial differences between the two, as sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting biases or promotional offers. Over time, the market and sportsbook odds may converge as new information becomes available and the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. Buyers are expressing a belief that the spread will be *less* than the contract price, while sellers believe it will be *more*. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders react to news and information, creating a real-time assessment of the likely outcome of the first quarter spread.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread in the first quarter of the Missouri vs Mississippi State football game will be used to determine which contracts payout. The official result will be sourced from established sports data providers and will be used to settle all outstanding contracts on Kalshi. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout of 100 cents per contract.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Missouri or Mississippi State teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact trading activity. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could shift perceptions of the likely outcome. Public sentiment, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also play a role, although this market is driven by individual trading decisions on Kalshi.