TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 6:03 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to Meta's ad impression growth across Family of Apps (year-over-year) for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to Meta's ad impression growth across Family of Apps (year-over-year) for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market participants are weighing in on Meta’s Q3 ad impression growth. It’s interesting to compare this market’s implied probabilities to those found in analyst reports and financial news. For example, if analysts broadly predict growth between 8% and 12%, it’s useful to see if this market assigns a higher or lower probability to that same range. Discrepancies can highlight areas where the market believes analysts may be over- or underestimating the potential for ad impression growth, offering a unique perspective on expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the actual percentage change in ad impressions across Meta’s Family of Apps during Q3, as reported by Meta in their official earnings release. The market will then settle to the outcome that most closely matches the reported growth figure, providing a clear and objective determination of the result.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market leading up to resolution. Any news regarding Meta’s advertising revenue, user engagement metrics, or broader economic conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Major announcements about new ad products or policy changes could also impact expectations for ad impression growth. Furthermore, reports from industry analysts and competitor performance could all contribute to price movements in this market, as traders react to evolving information and adjust their predictions accordingly.
