TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season
Description
This market refers to the LoL match between Vivo Keyd Stars Academy and paiN Gaming Academy in the Circuito Desafiante Regular Season, initially scheduled for March 31 at 6:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Vivo Keyd Stars Academy" if Vivo Keyd Stars Academy win the match against paiN Gaming Academy. This market will resolve to "paiN Gaming Academy" if paiN Gaming Academy win the match against Vivo Keyd Stars Academy. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve fundamentally different events. Kalshi resolves on whether either team wins a specific match (tautological — always YES), while Polymarket resolves on five distinct in-game statistics (kills parity, inhibitor destruction, Baron slays, dragon slays, and multi-kills). These are logically incompatible settlement bases.Hero Tip:
Do not treat these as correlated bets. Kalshi's market will always resolve YES (barring cancellation/forfeit), making it a near-certainty play. Polymarket's five markets depend entirely on match gameplay and are independent of match outcome. Betting YES on Kalshi does not predict any Polymarket outcome.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if either Vivo Keyd Stars Academy OR paiN Gaming Academy wins the match. This is a tautological outcome — one team must win, so the market always resolves YES unless the match is canceled, forfeited, or delayed beyond 7 days. The resolution logic is 'If paiN wins, YES. If Vivo wins, YES.' There is no NO outcome in normal play. Key quote: 'If paiN Gaming Academy wins the Circuito Desafiante 2026 match... then the market resolves to Yes. If Vivo Keyd Stars Academy wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves on five separate in-game statistics independent of match outcome: (1) Odd/Even total kills, (2) Both teams destroy inhibitors, (3) Match winner (Vivo vs paiN), (4) Both teams slay Baron, (5) Both teams slay dragons, plus (6) Quadra Kill and (7) Penta Kill occurrences. Each market has its own binary or ternary outcome (Yes/No/50-50) based on specific gameplay events, not match result. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Odd if the total combined kills by both teams in Game 1 is an odd number' and 'This market will resolve to Yes if both Vivo Keyd Stars Academy and paiN Gaming Academy each destroy at least one enemy inhibitor.'
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