TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
LoL: INTZ e-Sports vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season
Description
This market refers to the LoL match between INTZ e-Sports and KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas in the Circuito Desafiante Regular Season, initially scheduled for March 31 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "INTZ e-Sports" if INTZ e-Sports win the match against KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas. This market will resolve to "KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas" if KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas win the match against INTZ e-Sports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different events. Kalshi resolves on the outcome of the Circuito Desafiante 2026 tournament (winner determination), while Polymarket resolves on specific in-game statistics and outcomes from Game 1 of the match scheduled for March 31, 2026. These are incompatible resolution bases that will produce conflicting outcomes.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on the tournament champion. If you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on specific Game 1 mechanics (Baron kills, Dragon kills, inhibitors, kill parity, multi-kills). A Kalshi YES does not guarantee any Polymarket outcome, and vice versa. Do not assume correlation between these platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi resolves on tournament-level outcome only. Both markets (items 1 and 2) resolve YES if either KaBuM! or INTZ wins the entire Circuito Desafiante 2026 tournament, with no reference to the specific March 31 match result or in-game statistics. Key quote: 'If KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas wins the Circuito Desafiante 2026... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If INTZ e-Sports wins the Circuito Desafiante 2026... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves on six independent Game 1 outcomes: (1) Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor, (2) Both Teams Slay a Dragon, (3) Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors, (4) Odd/Even Total Kills, (5) Any Player Quadra Kill, (6) Any Player Penta Kill, plus one match-winner market. Each resolves based on official gol.gg data or credible video evidence within 2 hours post-event. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if both INTZ e-Sports and KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas each slay Baron Nashor at least once during Game 1.'
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.