TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
LoL: INTZ e-Sports vs Estral Esports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season
Description
This market refers to the LoL match between INTZ e-Sports and Estral Esports in the Circuito Desafiante Regular Season, initially scheduled for April 8 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "INTZ e-Sports" if INTZ e-Sports win the match against Estral Esports. This market will resolve to "Estral Esports" if Estral Esports win the match against INTZ e-Sports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve fundamentally different events. Kalshi resolves a binary match-winner market (Yes if either team wins), which is logically incoherent and resolves to Yes in all realistic scenarios. Polymarket resolves six distinct game-specific outcome markets (match winner, inhibitors, Baron, dragons, quadra kill, penta kill, kill parity) with proper binary or categorical logic. These are incompatible event definitions.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across these platforms assuming they settle the same outcome. Kalshi's market is unresolvable as written (both outcomes trigger Yes). Polymarket's markets are standard esports betting. If you hold positions on both platforms, treat them as completely separate bets with no hedge value.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi defines a single binary market that resolves Yes if 'Estral Esports wins' OR 'INTZ e-Sports wins' the match. This creates a logical contradiction—both possible match outcomes trigger Yes, making the market unresolvable. The market states 'If Estral Esports wins...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If INTZ e-Sports wins...then the market resolves to Yes,' with no No condition defined.
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard esports betting logic: Polymarket resolves six distinct markets: (1) match winner (INTZ vs Estral, categorical), (2) both teams destroy inhibitors (binary Yes/No), (3) both teams slay Baron (binary Yes/No), (4) both teams slay a dragon (binary Yes/No), (5) any player quadra kill (binary Yes/No), (6) any player penta kill (binary Yes/No). Each market has clear Yes and No conditions tied to specific in-game events, all sourced from gol.gg. These are properly formed prediction markets.
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