Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

On Polymarket, the Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026 market is priced at 10.2%, reflecting trader consensus that removal from office is a relatively low-probability outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy YES shares if they believe Lee will exit the presidency before 2027, and NO shares if they expect him to remain in office. The price fluctuates based on order flow, news events, and evolving political circumstances in South Korea. Higher volume periods typically indicate increased conviction or uncertainty among participants, while price stability suggests consensus among active traders on the likelihood of this outcome.

Key catalysts include South Korean presidential and legislative elections, court rulings on Lee's legal cases, party leadership contests, and major policy crises. Impeachment proceedings or constitutional challenges could accelerate removal odds significantly. International tensions, economic shocks, or corruption scandals involving Lee or his allies may shift trader sentiment. Health emergencies or unexpected resignations would trigger sharp repricing. Electoral performance in regional or national contests signals his political viability and coalition strength. Media investigations and legal developments remain ongoing, making this market sensitive to news flow. Traders should monitor South Korean political news, court calendars, and party dynamics closely for early signals of directional movement.