TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 6:21 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to how much "Klara and the Sun" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 23 - 25) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "Klara and the Sun" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 23 - 25) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of these shares reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more traders believe the box office will be under $2M, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase. This creates a dynamic and responsive price discovery process, allowing the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final box office numbers for the opening weekend of "Klara and the Sun" will be sourced from publicly available data, such as reports from major box office tracking websites. The market will settle based on whether the actual opening weekend box office falls above or below the specified thresholds defined within the market itself. Traders should monitor official sources for the definitive results that will determine the market’s resolution.
Several factors could influence the price action in this market leading up to Oct 25, 2026. Positive or negative reviews from prominent film critics could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected marketing pushes or viral social media trends related to the film could also impact expectations. Additionally, any news regarding the film’s distribution or availability could play a role. Finally, early box office reports from the first days of the opening weekend will likely cause substantial price movement as traders react to initial performance data.
