TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
KKS Lech Poznań vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk
Volume:
$181,933
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a professional soccer match between KKS Lech Poznań and FK Shakhtar Donetsk scheduled for March 12, 2026, with markets tracking the outcome (win/draw/loss) within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The match is part of UEFA Conference League competition, and resolution depends on the final score at the end of regulation time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation resolution logic differs between platforms. Polymarket's draw market resolves Yes on cancellation; Kalshi's omnibus structure (three separate Yes outcomes) does not explicitly define a cancellation rule, creating potential ambiguity.Hero Tip:
Confirm with Kalshi whether a full cancellation with no make-up game triggers all three outcome markets to Yes simultaneously, or if one outcome is designated as the default. For Polymarket, the draw market is explicitly Yes on cancellation. Traders should hedge or clarify platform intent before match day.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets: (1) Lech Poznań win resolves Yes if Lech wins, No otherwise; (2) Draw resolves Yes if match ends in a draw, Yes if canceled with no make-up (explicit rule); (3) Shakhtar win resolves Yes if Shakhtar wins, No otherwise. Resolution source is official UEFA statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours of match conclusion.
- Kalshi: Three separate binary markets presented as omnibus outcomes: (1) Tie wins resolves Yes; (2) Shakhtar wins resolves Yes; (3) Lech Poznan wins resolves Yes. All three reference the same match outcome at 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Cancellation rule is not explicitly stated; logical interpretation suggests only one outcome should resolve Yes per match result, but cancellation scenario is undefined.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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