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1,362,287,844

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$1,171,226,487

333,737

Markets across

33,115

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MATCHED EVENTS:

4,155

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?
Politics
kalshi
polymarket

John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?

Total volume:
$11,787,593
Volume 24h:
$13,624
506%
Liquidity:
$975
584%
Open interest:
$6,009,553
0.16%

Before January 20, 2029

 - Kalshi

Before January 20, 2029 - Kalshi

24%

-1%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

Vol.

$2.5k

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029?

24%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 24¢ buys you 417 shares | Odds: 24% Total Payout: $417 | Net Profit: $317 Multiplier: 4.17x | ROI: 317% High Projected APY: 5,753% 127 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group concerns whether John Ratcliffe will cease to be the U.S. Director of the Central Intelligence Agency by December 31 of the relevant year. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if Ratcliffe is no longer CIA Director for any period of time before the specified date.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence in triggering events - Kalshi resolves based on Trump's departure timing, Polymarket resolves based on Ratcliffe's CIA directorship statusHero tip: Traders should treat these as separate bets. A Trump departure before the Kalshi thresholds would trigger a Yes there even if Ratcliffe remains CIA Director, while Polymarket only resolves Yes if Ratcliffe actually leaves the CIA Director position before December 31.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump leaves office before August 1, 2026, April 1, 2026, January 20, 2029, January 1, 2028, or Jan 1, 2027
  • Polymarket: Market resolves to Yes if John Ratcliffe ceases to be U.S. Director of the Central Intelligence Agency for any period of time between market creation and December 31
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Ratcliffe ceases to be U.S. Director of the Central Intelligence Agency for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of John Ratcliffe's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Ratcliffe and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The event contains four separate markets with different resolution dates: before August 1, 2026; before January 1, 2027; before January 1, 2028; and before January 20, 2029. Each market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump leaves office before its specified deadline, excluding departure solely due to death. If Trump leaves office due to death, the associated market resolves based on the last traded price prior to death, or if that price is unavailable or illogical, the Outcome Review Committee determines fair allocation. Each market operates independently, allowing traders to express different views about the timing and likelihood of Trump's departure from office.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Ratcliffe CIA exit market aggregates real-time data from multiple venues, showing how traders across Polymarket and Kalshi price the likelihood of John Ratcliffe leaving his role as CIA Director by the end of the year. It displays current probabilities, volume of $11,756,152, and 24-hour volume of $12,854, offering a consensus view of market sentiment on this political outcome.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, one platform might attract more U.S.-focused traders, while another could see global participation, leading to slightly different probability assessments. Currently, Polymarket favors John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31? at 20.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029? at 24.0%, reflecting these platform-specific dynamics.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, it will be settled based on whether John Ratcliffe is no longer serving as CIA Director by December 31. The process relies on authoritative news sources and official announcements to determine the final result.

Several signals could shift probabilities in this market before it closes. Key events include official statements from the White House or the CIA, unexpected resignations or appointments, major policy shifts, or significant news affecting the director’s standing. Additionally, broader political developments, such as changes in administration priorities or international incidents, might also influence trader sentiment and move the market toward resolution.