TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 24, 8:45 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Carol Plakk and Arina Arifullina in the ITF Women Monastir, originally scheduled for June 17, 2026 at 8:45AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carol Plakk' if Carol Plakk advances against Arina Arifullina. This market will resolve to 'Arina Arifullina' if Arina Arifullina advances against Carol Plakk. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Carol Plakk and Arina Arifullina in the ITF Women Monastir, originally scheduled for June 17, 2026 at 8:45AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carol Plakk' if Carol Plakk advances against Arina Arifullina. This market will resolve to 'Arina Arifullina' if Arina Arifullina advances against Carol Plakk. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant pools and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and protect their margin, while prediction markets like this one are driven purely by trader belief—there is no house edge. This market's odds may move faster or more dramatically in response to breaking news, injury reports, or player form, since traders profit directly from accuracy rather than volume. Comparing the two can reveal where professional bettors and casual traders disagree on the likely outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader orders into real-time probabilities. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Shares for each outcome trade continuously, and the current price reflects the cumulative conviction of all active participants. As traders buy shares in one player, the price for that outcome rises and the opposing outcome falls, creating a self-balancing system. Larger trades move the price more sharply, incentivizing informed traders to act early when they spot mispricings relative to true match conditions.
This market resolves around Jun 24, 2026, once the match concludes and the winner is verified against credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by the official result of the ITF Monastir event—either Plakk or Arifullina will be confirmed as the victor. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the final point, allowing traders to settle their positions promptly. Any official ruling or appeal that affects the final winner will be reflected in the resolution.
Several factors can shift odds before the match begins. Injury announcements or withdrawal news involving either player would trigger sharp repricing. Recent tournament results, head-to-head records, and surface-specific form all influence trader positioning. Weather forecasts closer to match day may favor one player's style over the other. Betting syndicate activity or large block trades can also signal informed conviction and move the line. Social media buzz, coach changes, or equipment issues are additional catalysts that attentive traders monitor to identify edges.