TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 8, 4:52 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Miguel Tobon and Koray Kirci in the Istanbul 3, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Miguel Tobon' if Miguel Tobon advances against Koray Kirci. This market will resolve to 'Koray Kirci' if Koray Kirci advances against Miguel Tobon. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Miguel Tobon and Koray Kirci in the Istanbul 3, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Miguel Tobon' if Miguel Tobon advances against Koray Kirci. This market will resolve to 'Koray Kirci' if Koray Kirci advances against Miguel Tobon. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of forecasters, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven purely by individuals wagering on their beliefs about the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply variations in modeling approaches. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, especially in response to unexpected developments or late-breaking news surrounding the Tobon vs Kirci match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome of the Tobon vs Kirci match. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will fluctuate, providing a dynamic assessment of the event’s potential results. The current implied probability of a particular outcome is determined by the share price relative to 1.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Tobon vs Kirci match as reported by recognized sports authorities. The platform will then determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts to those who correctly predicted the result. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand how this market will be settled. The outcome will be determined based on the official match result.
Several signals could influence the price of this market before Sep 14, 2026. Any news regarding the physical condition of Miguel Tobon or Koray Kirci, such as injuries or illness, would likely have a significant impact. Changes in coaching strategy or unexpected tactical shifts announced by either team could also move the market. Public sentiment, as reflected in sports news and analysis, could also play a role, though prediction markets tend to be less susceptible to hype than traditional media. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of either fighter winning will likely cause price fluctuations.