TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$143,246,370
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,403,290,006
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,452,035,386
405,032
Markets across
30,543
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,690
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 5, 9:31 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Indy Eleven and Birmingham Legion FC, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Bets are settled based on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential.
The event resolves based on the final score of the Indy Eleven vs Birmingham Legion FC professional USL Championship soccer match scheduled for September 5, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Four distinct outcome thresholds are evaluated: Indy Eleven winning by more than 2.5 goals, Indy Eleven winning by more than 1.5 goals, Birmingham Legion FC winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Birmingham Legion FC winning by more than 2.5 goals. The market resolves to Yes for the specific threshold that is met; if multiple thresholds are satisfied, the most favorable outcome for the bettor (i.e., the highest margin requirement met) determines the resolution. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own information and analysis. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook has mispriced the outcome, you may see divergence between the two. It's common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, as they are constantly updated by traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price adjusts based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment surrounding the Indy Eleven vs Birmingham match.
This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Indy Eleven vs Birmingham match, specifically the spread. The platform will verify the result against trusted sources to ensure accuracy. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the incorrect outcome will forfeit their stake. This process ensures a transparent and reliable resolution.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. News regarding player injuries, changes in team form, or even weather conditions could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about coaching changes or significant team strategies could also lead to price movements. Public opinion and analysis from sports commentators might also play a role, influencing traders to adjust their positions. Any information that alters the perceived probability of either team covering the spread has the potential to move this market before Sep 6, 2026.