TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of a specific music track during a defined week, focusing on audience engagement through streaming numbers. The outcome depends on whether the track reaches certain listener milestones, reflecting its popularity and reach during that period. Data from an independent measurement provider will determine the final result.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds of streaming performance for the track “I’m So Happy” by Ms. Rachel during the week of September 25, 2026, to October 1, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific streaming threshold—ranging from 50,000 to 10 million streams—and resolves to "Yes" if the track exceeds that threshold. All markets share the same tracking period and data source: Luminate’s API, which reports the official stream count as of 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday following the tracking week. Luminate acts as a neutral metrics provider and does not influence market outcomes. The U.S. scope ensures that only streams within this region are counted, providing a consistent framework for all threshold-based markets.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional polls or expert predictions, as it represents a financial commitment to an outcome. If analysts are consistently over or underestimating the potential stream numbers, the price action in this market will reflect that difference. The market aggregates the views of many participants, potentially identifying signals that individual analysts might miss, and offers a unique view of expectations for the show's performance.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the prices based on their individual beliefs about the outcome. Contracts are priced between 0 and 100, representing the probability of an event occurring. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants trading on Kalshi, and is constantly adjusting to new information and sentiment. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of the likelihood of different stream counts.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official stream counts for the first week of ‘I’m So Happy’ are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of streams across all supported platforms during the first seven days after the show's release. The specific stream counts used for resolution will be sourced from publicly available data and verified to ensure accuracy. This market will then settle based on whether the actual stream numbers meet or exceed the thresholds defined by the different contract outcomes.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Early reviews of ‘I’m So Happy’ will be a major catalyst, with positive reviews likely driving up the price of contracts predicting higher stream counts. Social media buzz and trending topics related to the show could also influence trading activity. Unexpected marketing campaigns or celebrity endorsements could create further momentum. Finally, any news regarding the show's availability on different streaming platforms or potential controversies surrounding its content could also impact the market’s price action.
