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HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics
polymarket
kalshi

HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics

Volume:
$425,446

HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics

 - Polymarket

HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 22, 4:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$415,563
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Brandon Nakashima

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,377
N/A
N/A
$2,836
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Set 1 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$928
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$269
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Set 2 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$38
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Marton Fucsovics

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,761
N/A
N/A
$3,761
Settled
No
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$158
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Match O/U 23.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$147
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$145
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Match O/U 22.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Match O/U 21.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 18

Description

This event group covers a professional tennis match between Brandon Nakashima and Marton Fucsovics at the 2026 HSBC Championships (ATP London), scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. Markets track both the match winner/advancement and whether the match is completed under normal play conditions.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi measures Set 2 outcome (binary: either player wins = Yes), while Polymarket measures match advancement (winner-based) and match completion (normal play only). These are distinct events with different resolution triggers and edge case handling.Hero tip: Kalshi's Set 2 resolution is independent of match completion or advancement. A Set 2 winner does not guarantee match advancement or completion. Polymarket's completion market explicitly rejects retirements and walkovers (No), while Kalshi does not address these scenarios. Verify which market you hold before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves Yes if either Brandon Nakashima or Marton Fucsovics wins Set 2 in the Round of 32 match. No edge case guidance provided for match cancellation, retirement, or walkover. Quote: 'If Brandon Nakashima wins set 2... then the market resolves to Yes. If Marton Fucsovics wins set 2... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket (Match Winner): Resolves to the player name who advances. Resolves 50-50 for cancellation, tie, or delay beyond 7 days. Resolves to advancing player if match begins but ends in retirement/default/disqualification. Resolves 50-50 for walkover. Quote: 'This market will resolve to the player who advances... If the match is canceled... this market will resolve to 50-50.'
  • Polymarket (Match Completion): Resolves Yes only if all sets/games are completed under normal play. Resolves No for cancellation, tie, delay beyond 7 days, walkover, retirement, default, or disqualification. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if all games and sets... are played to completion through normal play. Otherwise... it will resolve to No. If a forfeit of any kind occurs... this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Brandon Nakashima and Marton Fucsovics in the HSBC Championships, originally scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Brandon Nakashima' if Brandon Nakashima advances against Marton Fucsovics. This market will resolve to 'Marton Fucsovics' if Marton Fucsovics advances against Brandon Nakashima. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on which player wins set 2 in the professional tennis match. If the match does not occur before play begins due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price. Postponements or delays keep the market open until the rescheduled match concludes within two weeks. If a player retires, markets that can be unconditionally settled based on completed play resolve accordingly; those that cannot are resolved to fair market price at the Exchange's discretion.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price tennis matches differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin, while prediction markets reflect aggregated trader beliefs with minimal spread. This market's odds may diverge from traditional sportsbook lines due to different liquidity pools, trader sophistication, and real-time adjustment speed. Comparing this market to major sportsbooks can reveal value opportunities, especially as match conditions or player form shift closer to the event.

Polymarket and Kalshi serve distinct trader bases and operate under different contract structures. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket segments outcomes into set-level granularity, attracting traders focused on tactical breakpoints, while Kalshi emphasizes match-level binary outcomes, drawing broader participation. Liquidity concentration, fee schedules, and user geography also influence pricing. These structural differences mean identical events can trade at slightly different odds across venues, creating arbitrage opportunities for alert traders.

Player injury reports, recent performance trends, and head-to-head history are primary catalysts for price movement. Court surface conditions, weather forecasts, and tournament draw positioning can also shift implied probabilities. Betting action from sharp money or large position changes on either platform may signal new information. Real-time match updates—such as early set results or momentum swings—typically drive the most volatile repricing as traders update their forecasts based on live performance data.