TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the streaming performance of a specific song over a defined week. It evaluates whether the song achieves various incremental streaming milestones, reflecting its popularity and reach during that period. The outcomes are determined by official streaming data reported after the tracking week concludes.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple streaming thresholds for the song "How To Quit Smoking" by Dominic Fike during the week of October 09 to October 15, 2026. Each threshold represents a distinct milestone, ranging from 1 million to 20 million streams. If the song exceeds any specified threshold, the corresponding market resolves to "Yes." All outcomes are determined by data reported by Luminate’s API as of 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the tracking week. Luminate serves as the neutral metrics provider and does not endorse or influence the market outcomes. The event exclusively pertains to U.S. streaming data.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional polls or expert analyses, as traders are incentivized to express their genuine beliefs with real capital. While analysts may rely on surveys or statistical models, the quitting smoking market reflects a dynamic assessment based on a wide range of information and individual judgment. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions or the incorporation of factors not typically considered in conventional forecasts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current price indicates the cost to purchase a contract that pays out if the event resolves in favor of that outcome, and conversely, the amount a seller receives for offering that contract.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether a significant number of participants in the featured streams demonstrably quit smoking during the first week, as determined by publicly available data and verified reporting. The precise criteria for determining success are based on observable behavior within the streams themselves, and the resolution process aims to objectively assess whether the stated goal of quitting smoking was achieved by a majority of those participating in the event.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 18, 2026. Unexpected news related to smoking cessation aids, public health campaigns, or changes in regulations could influence trader sentiment. The performance of similar quitting attempts by prominent figures or the release of compelling data on the effectiveness of different methods could also impact the odds. Furthermore, any controversies or challenges faced by the streamers involved in the event could introduce uncertainty and volatility into this market, causing prices to fluctuate as traders reassess the likelihood of success.
