TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Above 1K
- Kalshi
Above 1K - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Oct 18, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Oct 18, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of Dominic Fike's album "How To Quit Smoking" during a specific one-week period in October 2026. The outcome depends on whether the album achieves certain sales thresholds within that timeframe, reflecting consumer demand and market reception for the release.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Dominic Fike's album "How To Quit Smoking" achieves specified pure album sales thresholds during the tracking week of October 09 to October 15, 2026, in the U.S. market. Each market corresponds to a different sales threshold—ranging from above 1,000 to above 5,000 units—and resolves to 'Yes' if the reported sales meet or exceed the respective threshold. All outcomes are determined by data provided by Luminate’s API as of 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the tracking week. Luminate serves as a neutral metrics provider and does not influence or endorse the prediction market outcomes. The event collectively gauges anticipated sales performance, with higher thresholds representing increasingly ambitious projections of public reception and commercial success for the album during its initial release week.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions embedded in this market to specific analyst forecasts for How To Quit Smoking's first-week album sales. While music industry analysts often provide sales projections, these are typically point estimates or ranges released before the album launch. This market, however, represents a continuously updated probability distribution of potential outcomes, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders. Discrepancies between the market price and initial analyst predictions may arise due to differing information or varying interpretations of available data.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different sales outcomes for the album. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect changing expectations. The market effectively aggregates diverse perspectives into a single, real-time forecast of album sales.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first-week album sales figures for How To Quit Smoking are verifiable from credible public reporting. These figures will be sourced from industry-recognized charts and sales tracking services. The market will settle to the sales range that contains the actual reported sales number, as defined by the contract specifications on Kalshi. Traders holding contracts in the winning range will receive a payout.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Pre-release singles charting performance, critical reviews, and media coverage of How To Quit Smoking will all play a role. Unexpected promotional activity, such as surprise appearances or viral marketing campaigns, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, broader trends in music consumption, like streaming versus physical sales, and the overall popularity of the artist could impact trading activity. Any news related to album availability or distribution could also move this market.
