TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of Dominic Fike's album "How To Quit Smoking" during a specific week in October 2026. It evaluates whether the album achieves various sales milestones, measured in album equivalent units, which combine traditional sales with streaming and other factors to reflect overall popularity.
Kalshi
The event assesses multiple thresholds for album equivalent units sold by Dominic Fike's "How To Quit Smoking" within the U.S. during the tracking week of October 09 to October 15, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific sales milestone—ranging from above 2,000 to above 30,000 units—and resolves to 'Yes' if the album exceeds that threshold. All outcomes are determined by data reported by Luminate’s API as of 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday following the tracking week. Luminate serves as the neutral metrics provider and does not influence or endorse the market outcomes. The structure allows participants to speculate on the album's commercial success across several incremental benchmarks within the same timeframe.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for album sales. While analysts often rely on pre-release singles, artist history, and marketing spend, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential surprises. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as the market can quickly adjust to new information or changing sentiment that analysts may not immediately factor in. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into the overall expectations surrounding the album’s performance.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first-week album equivalent units are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on data released by established music industry tracking services, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the winning outcome. Traders will be able to see the final results and how their positions fared once the official figures are published. It’s important to monitor industry news leading up to the resolution date for any potential updates or changes.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Unexpected viral trends on social media, critical acclaim or negative reviews from major music publications, and significant shifts in streaming numbers could all influence trader sentiment. Major artist endorsements or appearances, as well as any unforeseen controversies surrounding the album or artist, could also cause price fluctuations. Monitoring these factors and staying informed about the album’s reception will be crucial for understanding potential market movements leading up to Oct 18, 2026.
