TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of the most-watched show on Netflix's English-language global chart for a specific week. Participants can speculate on whether the top show will meet various viewership thresholds, offering a way to gauge audience engagement and popularity trends.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple viewership thresholds for the top-ranked show on Netflix’s Global "Shows | English" weekly chart, as published on October 27, 2026. Each threshold represents a distinct market outcome (Yes or No) based on whether the show’s view count meets or exceeds the specified level. All markets share identical secondary rules: they measure "Views"—not hours viewed—of the top show, with charts updated on Tuesdays. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart’s publication, reflecting the week ending the previous Sunday. No endorsement from Netflix is implied, and references are purely descriptive. Thresholds range incrementally from 6 million to 50 million views, allowing participants to assess varying levels of popularity.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's important to note that analyst forecasts for streaming viewership are often based on limited data and historical trends. This market, however, allows for a dynamic assessment of expectations, incorporating a wider range of information and collective intelligence. While some analysts may predict a certain range for the #1 show’s views, the prediction market reflects what traders are *willing to bet* will happen, potentially offering a more accurate signal of likely outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and biases.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different viewership ranges for the top Netflix show. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The market depth and order book are visible on the platform, allowing traders to analyze the current state of the market.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official viewership numbers for the #1 show on Netflix for the relevant week are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the publicly reported total views, as defined by Netflix's standard reporting metrics. The specific viewership range that corresponds to the actual reported views will determine which contracts pay out, and at what value. Traders should monitor official Netflix announcements for the final data.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. Unexpected critical acclaim or negative reviews for the #1 show could significantly shift viewership. Major social media trends or viral moments featuring the show could also drive increased engagement. Furthermore, the release of trailers or promotional materials for competing shows on other streaming platforms could impact relative viewership. Any news regarding Netflix’s overall subscriber numbers or viewing habits could also move this market as traders reassess expectations.
