TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 4:58 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve according to the views figure of the show that this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show, according to Netflix. If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the view count of the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. If the reported views figure falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will not consider hours viewed. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used to determine the final figure.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve according to the views figure of the show that this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show, according to Netflix. If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the view count of the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. If the reported views figure falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will not consider hours viewed. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used to determine the final figure.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often rely on historical data and genre trends, this market incorporates a broader range of information, including social media buzz, early reviews, and even anecdotal evidence. This often leads to a more dynamic and potentially accurate prediction of the #1 show’s viewership. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can react faster to new information and reflect a wider range of opinions.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different viewership ranges. The price of each share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. Higher volume in a particular range generally indicates stronger confidence in that outcome, driving the price of shares in that range upwards. The market is entirely driven by supply and demand among traders.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official viewership numbers for the #1 show on Netflix this week are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the officially reported viewership figures released by Netflix or a reputable third-party data provider tracking Netflix performance. The specific viewership range that encompasses the actual number will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders should monitor official announcements for the definitive resolution of this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Unexpected critical acclaim or negative reviews for the #1 show could drive viewership up or down. Major social media trends or viral moments related to the show could also influence viewing figures. Furthermore, any news regarding Netflix’s marketing efforts or promotional campaigns could shift expectations. Finally, the release of competing content on other streaming platforms could draw viewers away, impacting the show’s performance and, consequently, the prices in this market.
