TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of the most-watched show on Netflix for a specific week, focusing on view counts rather than watch time. Participants can speculate on whether the top show will meet various view thresholds in the weekly rankings.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the number of views (not hours viewed) of the top-ranked show on Netflix’s Global "Shows | English" chart for the week ending the Sunday before October 13, 2026. The chart is published on October 13, 2026, and all markets close at 11:59 PM ET the day before. Each market has a specific numerical threshold; if the view count meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise No. These markets are independent of Netflix, which has not endorsed them.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's important to note that analysts' forecasts for Netflix viewership numbers vary considerably, with estimates often relying on past performance and limited early data. This market offers a different perspective, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. While analyst predictions can be useful, they don’t always capture the nuances that traders consider when assessing the potential success of a show. The efficiency of this market means the odds can quickly adjust to incorporate new information and potentially outperform traditional forecasts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders submit buy and sell orders for contracts representing different viewership outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will fluctuate, providing a dynamic assessment of the likely viewership numbers. This creates a real-time forecast based on the aggregated knowledge of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official viewership data for the #1 show on Netflix this week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of views, as reported by Netflix's official metrics. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome. Traders should monitor official announcements from Netflix to stay informed about the data release and the final resolution of this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement in this market. Early reviews and social media buzz surrounding the #1 show on Netflix will likely play a significant role. Unexpected marketing pushes or major news events related to the show could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, the release of viewership data for competing shows could impact the relative attractiveness of this market. Any significant changes in Netflix’s overall subscriber base or viewing habits could also be a catalyst for price fluctuations in this market.
