TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This group forecasts the number of views the most popular show on Netflix will receive in a given week. Resolution depends on the official viewership data published by Netflix, specifically for TV shows (English language) and based on global totals. The markets aim to predict whether the #1 show will surpass specific view thresholds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi markets resolve if the #1 show *exceeds* a view count, while Polymarket asks if it will be *below* or *within* a range.Hero tip: Pay close attention to the question framing on each platform. A view count exactly on a threshold will resolve differently. Consider the implications of the 'exactly between brackets' rule on Polymarket.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Polymarket presents a series of binary questions focused on view ranges. For example, 'Will the #1 global Netflix show have between 6 and 9 million views this week?' and 'Will the #1 global Netflix show have less than 6 million views this week?' Resolution is based on the views figure reported by Netflix on top10.netflix.com, with a tiebreaker based on alphabetical title order.
- Kalshi: Kalshi offers a series of binary markets that resolve 'Yes' if the #1 show exceeds a specific view count. For example, 'If the #1 Show on Netflix has at least 6 million views...then the market resolves to Yes.' Resolution is based on the chart published on Oct 6, 2026.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve according to the views figure of the show that this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show, according to Netflix. If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the view count of the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. If the reported views figure falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will not consider hours viewed. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used to determine the final figure.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the number of views (not hours viewed) of the top-ranked show on Netflix’s weekly Global "Shows | English" chart published on October 6, 2026, which reflects data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The markets will close at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart’s publication. Each market has a specific numerical threshold (ranging from 6 million to 50 million views); if the published view count meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes. These products are not endorsed by Netflix, and any references to Netflix are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on models and expert opinions, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and potential biases. The current pricing suggests a strong expectation for high viewership, but it’s important to note that market participants are constantly updating their beliefs based on new information. Discrepancies between market odds and analyst forecasts can present opportunities for informed traders, as the market often proves surprisingly accurate in predicting real-world outcomes.
