TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 4:58 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve according to the views figure of the movie that this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie, according to Netflix. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the view count of the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. If the reported views figure falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will not consider hours viewed. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used to determine the final figure.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve according to the views figure of the movie that this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie, according to Netflix. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the view count of the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. If the reported views figure falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will not consider hours viewed. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used to determine the final figure.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on historical data and studio projections, this market incorporates the wisdom of the crowd, reacting to early streaming data, social media buzz, and other real-time signals. This can lead to discrepancies, especially in cases where a movie defies expectations. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially outperforming static analyst predictions. The dynamic nature of the market allows for a more responsive assessment of potential viewership.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different outcomes. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, creating a dynamic and efficient forecast. The market's price is determined solely by supply and demand for these shares, providing a clear signal of collective expectation.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official viewership numbers for the top movie on Netflix this week are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reported view count will be used to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual result. The resolution will be based on publicly available data, ensuring transparency and objectivity. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome and their positions in this market.
Several signals could significantly move this market before resolution. Early streaming data released by third-party trackers, major social media trends surrounding the movie, critical reviews, and unexpected marketing pushes by Netflix itself are all potential catalysts. A surprise appearance by a popular actor promoting the film, or a viral clip from the movie, could also drive increased viewership and shift the odds. Any news that alters public perception of the movie's appeal has the potential to impact trading activity and reshape the probabilities within this market.
