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338,330

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Science and Technology
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?
Science and Technology
polymarket

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?

Aug 21, 2026, 10:49 AM EST - Aug 30, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$7,720
Volume 24h:
$1,984
29%
Liquidity:
$21,678
11%
Open interest:
$4,990N/A

more than 13

 - Polymarket

more than 13 - Polymarket

18%

-26%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

Aug 27

Vol.

$1.9k

·

Resolves Aug 31, 2026

Time left: 04d:02h:11m

Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?

17%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 18¢ buys you 556 shares | Odds: 17% Total Payout: $556 | Net Profit: $456 Multiplier: 5.56x | ROI: 456% APY not meaningful 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 9

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the global earthquake count market, showing how traders price the likelihood of different numbers of 5.5 or above magnitude earthquakes occurring between August 24 and August 30. It also displays current 24-hour volume of $1,984 and total volume of $7,720, letting users monitor market interest and activity on Polymarket.

Currently, this market’s odds reflect a trader-assessed probability that differs from many analyst forecasts. While analysts may publish their expectations for seismic activity based on historical patterns or tectonic models, the market price captures a crowdsourced view that can shift rapidly with new geological data, news reports, or changes in trading sentiment.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders continuously set the price through buying and selling contracts that pay out based on the actual count of qualifying earthquakes. The current top outcome has a chance of 17.0%, and the market’s price history shows how expectations have evolved, influenced by recent seismic events and broader risk assessments.

This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the number of 5.5 or above magnitude earthquakes during August 24 to August 30 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count will be compared against the market’s listed options to determine the paying contracts.

Any significant seismic activity — especially earthquakes of 5.5 magnitude or greater — reported during the specified week can shift this market quickly. Additionally, news about tectonic stress updates, geological studies, or monitoring alerts may influence trader sentiment. Sudden spikes in activity or quiet periods will both affect odds as participants reassess probabilities leading up to Aug 31, 2026.