TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.3b

24H VOL:

$172,964,198

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,798,566,680

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,800,387,182

518,213

Markets across

38,398

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,848

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
polymarket
kalshi

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

Total volume:
$79,935
Volume 24h:
$19,101
358%
Liquidity:
$394
78%
Open interest:
$28,087
7%

Below 5.25%

 - Polymarket

Below 5.25% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Time left: 08d:07h:15m

Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% in October?

38%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 47¢ buys you 213 shares | Odds: 38% Total Payout: $213 | Net Profit: $113 Multiplier: 2.13x | ROI: 113% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 8 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Below 5.25%

Trade
38%
4%
Yes 47¢No 78¢
25¢
$394
$1,525
7%
45%
N/A
1w 1d 7h
active
kalshi

5.28% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
20¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6d 22h 46m
active
kalshi

5.27% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
19¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6d 22h 46m
active
kalshi

5.26% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
7¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6d 22h 46m
active
kalshi

5.25% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
20¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6d 22h 46m
active
kalshi

5.24% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
19¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6d 22h 46m
active
kalshi

5.61% or below

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,762
N/A
N/A
$6,762
6d 22h 46m
Yes
polymarket

Below 5.49%

View
100%
54%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,605
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 7h
Yes
kalshi

5.49% or below

View
100%
88%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,855
N/A
N/A
$856
6d 22h 46m
Yes
kalshi

5.46% or below

View
100%
72%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,450
N/A
N/A
$528
6d 22h 46m
Yes
polymarket

Below 5.46%

View
100%
62%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,782
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 7h
Yes
kalshi

5.62% or below

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,212
N/A
N/A
$2,156
6d 22h 46m
Yes
polymarket

Below 5.35%

View
100%
68%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,727
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 7h
Yes
kalshi

5.35% or below

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$460
N/A
N/A
$330
6d 22h 46m
Yes
kalshi

5.59% or below

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,056
N/A
N/A
$1,120
6d 22h 46m
Yes
polymarket

Below 5.40%

View
100%
33%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,923
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 7h
Yes
kalshi

5.4% or below

View
100%
35%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$520
N/A
N/A
$294
6d 22h 46m
Yes
polymarket

Below 5.52%

View
100%
47%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,721
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 7h
Yes
kalshi

5.52% or below

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,677
N/A
N/A
$446
6d 22h 46m
Yes
kalshi

5.63% or below

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,713
N/A
N/A
$2,611
6d 22h 46m
Yes
polymarket

Below 5.30%

View
100%
83%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,610
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 7h
Yes
kalshi

5.51% or below

View
100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,568
N/A
N/A
$912
6d 22h 46m
Yes
kalshi

5.6% or below

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,547
N/A
N/A
$1,206
6d 22h 46m
Yes
kalshi

5.34% or below

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,207
N/A
N/A
$849
6d 22h 46m
Yes
kalshi

5.54% or below

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,172
N/A
N/A
$479
6d 22h 46m
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 49

Description

This group of markets asks forecasters to predict how low the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond will fall during the month of October 2026. Lower yields indicate higher bond prices, and are often associated with economic slowdowns or expectations of future interest rate cuts.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets diverge on the specific yield thresholds tested and the exact date ranges considered for resolution.Hero tip: Carefully compare the specific yield threshold being tested in each market. Also, remember Kalshi only considers business days, while Polymarket considers all dates in October.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if the 30-year Treasury yield falls below a specified value on *any* day between October 2nd and October 31st, 2026. Resolution source is the Department of the Treasury.
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if the 30-year Treasury yield falls below a specified value on *any business day* between October 1st and October 30th, 2026. Resolution source is the Department of the Treasury.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Kalshi

All markets share a common evaluation period from October 1, 2026, to October 30, 2026, and rely exclusively on daily published par yields for the 30-year U.S. Treasury as reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Resolution depends solely on whether the yield falls below the specified threshold for any business day within this window, using the first published value of each day unless a material error is identified by the Exchange. Markets may expire early if the condition is met; otherwise, expiration occurs by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day following the publication of the final daily value in the period, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first. Each market’s unique threshold determines its specific outcome.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates trading activity around the question of how low the 30-year Treasury yield will fall in October. Currently, the consensus view across these platforms suggests a very high probability of the yield dropping below a certain threshold. The total volume traded across both venues is $79,935, with $1,102 changing hands in the last 24 hours. This indicates significant interest in predicting the future direction of long-term interest rates. The dashboard provides a combined view of the Polymarket and Kalshi prices, offering a comprehensive look at the 30-year Treasury yield market.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on economic models and reports, this market incorporates the collective judgment of numerous traders who are incentivized to accurately assess the likelihood of different outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s valuable to compare the implied probabilities from this market with expert opinions to gain a more nuanced understanding of potential yield movements.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 30-year Treasury yield for October is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from a trusted financial source, reflecting the lowest yield achieved during the specified period. The final price will be determined by the lowest yield recorded, providing a clear and objective outcome for this market. Traders can monitor the yield’s movement leading up to the resolution date to assess their positions.

Several economic indicators and geopolitical events could significantly impact this market. Key factors include inflation data releases, Federal Reserve policy announcements, and overall economic growth figures. Unexpected shifts in these areas could lead to changes in investor sentiment and subsequently, the 30-year Treasury yield. Geopolitical instability or major global economic shocks could also drive investors towards safe-haven assets like Treasury bonds, potentially lowering the yield. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone participating in this market.