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$142.4b

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$104,871,197

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469,827

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How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026?
⌛Ending Soon
kalshi

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026?

Oct 9, 2026, 7:05 PM EST - Oct 16, 2026, 3:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$11,236
Volume 24h:
$10,875
5,942%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$1,404
21%

5.4% or above

 - Kalshi

5.4% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 16, 2026

Time left: 01d:14h:49m

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Oct 16, 2026?

96%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 92¢ buys you 109 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $109 | Net Profit: $9 Multiplier: 1.09x | ROI: 9% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

5.4% or above

Trade
96%
Yes 92¢No 100¢
92¢
N/A
$760
0%
N/A
$74
1d 14h 49m
active
kalshi

5.31% or above

Trade
14%
Yes 92¢No 97¢
89¢
N/A
$899
0%
N/A
$7
1d 14h 49m
active
kalshi

5.45% or above

Trade
14%
Yes 87¢No 100¢
87¢
N/A
$710
1,667%
N/A
$56
1d 14h 49m
active
kalshi

5.32% or above

Trade
12%
Yes 92¢No 100¢
92¢
N/A
$1,003
0%
N/A
$150
1d 14h 49m
active
kalshi

5.28% or above

Trade
10%
Yes 92¢No 100¢
92¢
N/A
$523
0%
N/A
$1
1d 14h 49m
active
kalshi

5.3% or above

Trade
10%
Yes 92¢No 100¢
92¢
N/A
$483
0%
N/A
$1
1d 14h 49m
active
kalshi

5.26% or above

Trade
10%
Yes 80¢No 100¢
80¢
N/A
$312
0%
N/A
$73
1d 14h 49m
active
kalshi

5.27% or above

Trade
10%
Yes 100¢No 97¢
97¢
N/A
$276
0%
N/A
$2
1d 14h 49m
active
kalshi

5.37% or above

Trade
5%
Yes 87¢No 100¢
87¢
N/A
$804
0%
N/A
$90
1d 14h 49m
active
kalshi

5.39% or above

Trade
4%
Yes 92¢No 100¢
92¢
N/A
$792
0%
N/A
$133
1d 14h 49m
active
kalshi

5.38% or above

Trade
4%
Yes 92¢No 100¢
92¢
N/A
$287
0%
N/A
$130
1d 14h 49m
active
kalshi

5.36% or above

Trade
3%
Yes 92¢No 100¢
92¢
N/A
$690
0%
N/A
$90
1d 14h 49m
active
kalshi

5.35% or above

Trade
3%
Yes 92¢No 100¢
92¢
N/A
$669
0%
N/A
$121
1d 14h 49m
active
kalshi

5.42% or above

Trade
3%
Yes 92¢No 100¢
92¢
N/A
$372
0%
N/A
$132
1d 14h 49m
active
kalshi

5.44% or above

Trade
3%
Yes 92¢No 100¢
92¢
N/A
$354
343%
N/A
$52
1d 14h 49m
active
kalshi

5.41% or above

Trade
3%
Yes 92¢No 100¢
92¢
N/A
$270
0%
N/A
$33
1d 14h 49m
active
kalshi

5.29% or above

Trade
3%
Yes 92¢No 100¢
92¢
N/A
$252
0%
N/A
$12
1d 14h 49m
active
kalshi

5.34% or above

Trade
3%
Yes 92¢No 100¢
92¢
N/A
$668
1,005%
N/A
$44
1d 14h 49m
active
kalshi

5.33% or above

Trade
2%
Yes 92¢No 100¢
92¢
N/A
$639
0%
N/A
$60
1d 14h 49m
active
kalshi

5.43% or above

Trade
2%
7%
Yes 92¢No 100¢
92¢
N/A
$474
163%
N/A
$143
1d 14h 49m
active
Total markets: 20

Description

The event tracks potential movements in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield over a specific short period. It examines whether the yield surpasses various threshold levels during business days in early October 2026, reflecting investor sentiment and economic expectations.

Kalshi

Each market resolves based on whether the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury exceeds a specific threshold on any business day between October 9, 2026, and October 16, 2026. The resolution relies exclusively on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor, as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Intraday values are disregarded, and the first published value for each business day is used unless a material error is identified by the Exchange before expiration. Markets may expire early if the threshold is met, following Rule 7.2. Otherwise, expiration occurs by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first. All markets share these consistent resolution and expiration procedures.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 10Y Treasury yield market displays the current implied probabilities for various yield levels by October 16, 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the total volume traded in this market, currently at $11,236. The 24-hour volume is reported as $10,875, indicating recent trading activity and interest. This information helps traders assess market sentiment and potential future movements in the 10-year Treasury yield.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for US Treasury yields. While many analysts predict a moderate increase in yields over the next few years, the range of outcomes priced into this market reflects a wider spectrum of possibilities, including scenarios of both higher and lower yields. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are often point estimates, whereas this market represents a probability distribution across various yield levels, providing a more nuanced view of potential future outcomes.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different yield levels. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability that the 10-year Treasury yield will exceed that level by Oct 16, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, creating a dynamic and real-time forecast. The current prices indicate what traders are willing to pay for exposure to different yield outcomes, effectively aggregating their collective expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 10-year US Treasury yield on that date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The actual yield will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider and used to determine which contracts pay out. Traders who correctly predicted the yield level will receive a payout based on the contract's value at resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their investment. This allows for a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.

Several key economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes or cuts, are major drivers of Treasury yields. Unexpected inflation data releases, strong or weak economic growth reports, and geopolitical events can also influence investor sentiment and yield expectations. Furthermore, shifts in global demand for US debt, or changes in the perceived risk of US sovereign debt, could all contribute to movements in this market between now and Oct 16, 2026.