TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$143,246,370
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,403,290,006
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,452,035,386
405,032
Markets across
30,543
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,690
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 9, 2:00 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between HNK Hajduk Split and MŠK Žilina, scheduled for July 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "HNK Hajduk Split" if HNK Hajduk Split are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "MŠK Žilina" if MŠK Žilina are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
In the upcoming match between HNK Hajduk Split and MŠK Žilina, scheduled for July 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "HNK Hajduk Split" if HNK Hajduk Split are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "MŠK Žilina" if MŠK Žilina are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional sportsbook lines because they aggregate real-time trader conviction rather than relying on fixed oddsmaking models. On Polymarket, participants continuously adjust prices based on breaking news, injury reports, or tactical shifts, whereas sportsbooks typically move odds to balance liability. For this match, comparing the prediction market consensus to major sportsbook offerings can reveal whether traders are pricing in factors—such as recent form or head-to-head history—that conventional bookmakers have underweighted or overlooked.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader buy and sell orders into real-time probability quotes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the ratio of collateral backing that outcome relative to the total pool, meaning larger trades move the odds more sharply when liquidity is thin. Traders profit by correctly predicting which team scores first, with payouts determined by the final price at which the market resolves.
This market resolves around Jul 9, 2026, after the match concludes and the opening goal is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by whichever team scores the first goal during regular play. Once the result is confirmed through official match reporting, the market settles and traders holding the winning outcome receive their payout based on the price at which they entered their position.
Key catalysts include official team lineups and injury announcements, which can shift offensive firepower or defensive stability. Tactical changes, such as a switch to a more aggressive formation, may increase the probability of an early goal. Recent form and head-to-head records between Hajduk Split and Žilina can also influence trader positioning. Weather conditions, pitch quality, and any last-minute roster adjustments announced closer to kickoff will likely trigger repricing as new information becomes available to the market.