TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
polymarket

Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

Jul 23, 2026, 6:55 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$141,933
Volume 24h:
$4,320
42%
Liquidity:
$3,831
38%
Open interest:
$11,806N/A

55%+

 - Polymarket

55%+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?

81%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 81¢ buys you 123 shares | Odds: 81% Total Payout: $123 | Net Profit: $23 Multiplier: 1.23x | ROI: 23% | APY: 168% 78 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

55%+

Trade
81%
1%
Yes 81¢No 20¢
1¢
$1,031
$40,420
2%
7%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

60%+

Trade
39%
Yes 41¢No 63¢
4¢
$629
$55,216
0%
12%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

65%+

Trade
11%
1%
Yes 12¢No 91¢
3¢
$926
$22,815
0.13%
14%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

70%+

Trade
8%
Yes 9¢No 94¢
3¢
$1,246
$6,153
0%
5%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

50%+

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.4¢
N/A
$17,329
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
Yes
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often provide a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on modeling and expert opinion, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and potential biases. Currently, the implied probability from this market may differ from those published by AI research firms. This divergence can be valuable, as prediction markets have demonstrated a strong track record of accuracy, sometimes outperforming conventional forecasting methods. The collective intelligence represented by the volume of $141,933 can offer a compelling signal.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 will be the determining factor. Resolution will be based on the officially published results of the exam, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment. The market will then settle based on which outcome range encompasses the actual score. The current volume of $141,933 suggests significant interest in the eventual result.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Major announcements from OpenAI regarding model advancements, particularly those related to reasoning and problem-solving capabilities, would likely cause price fluctuations. Developments in the design or content of Humanity’s Last Exam itself could also be a catalyst. Unexpected breakthroughs in AI safety or alignment research could shift perceptions of OpenAI’s potential performance. Increased 24-hour volume of $748 could indicate a growing response to new information, and any public demonstrations of OpenAI models tackling similar challenges would be closely watched.