Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

On Polymarket, traders currently assign a 71.7% probability to the leading outcome, reflecting a strong consensus that Gemini will hit key benchmarks. This contrasts with many traditional analyst forecasts, which often remain more cautious due to differing methodologies and risk assumptions. The gap can provide early signals of market sentiment diverging from institutional expectations, especially as new test results or model updates emerge. Monitoring this market lets you see where crowd wisdom stands against expert opinion.

On Kalshi, pricing dynamics can diverge from Polymarket due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? at 71.7%, while Kalshi leans toward Will any LLM score at least 50% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? at 99.0%. Factors such as varying trader sentiment, regional participation patterns, and distinct order-book depths can all contribute to the spread of 27.3 between the two venues, creating opportunities for arbitrage or insight into shifting expectations.

This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will depend on official announcements or widely accepted test results showing the highest Gemini score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam during 2026. As long as the data appears in reputable sources, the market will close and payouts will follow based on the recorded performance.

Key events such as major Gemini model updates, published test results from independent researchers, and announcements about new benchmark versions could all shift this market. High-impact signals include surprise performance leaks, regulatory comments affecting AI testing, or competing models posting strong scores that raise the bar. Traders will also watch for shifts in Polymarket and Kalshi odds, as changing sentiment on either venue often precedes broader market movements.