TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
These markets track whether a specific artist will achieve various levels of global daily viewership on YouTube within a defined week. The outcomes depend on whether the artist's content surpasses predetermined view count thresholds on any single day during the specified period.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether the artist achieves specific global daily view count thresholds on YouTube during the week of October 5–11, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different threshold, ranging from above 4 million to above 8 million views. Resolution depends on whether, at any point during the week, the artist's global daily views exceed the respective threshold when measured from a New York IP address. View counts are verified using YouTube Charts by searching for the artist and selecting “Global” as the location. All markets explicitly state that YouTube has not endorsed these products, and references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no affiliation or endorsement by YouTube.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing the odds in this market to external analyst forecasts reveals how the wisdom of the crowd stacks up against expert opinions. Often, prediction markets can incorporate information more quickly than traditional forecasts, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. However, analysts may bring specialized knowledge to bear, especially regarding factors influencing viewership that aren’t immediately apparent in market trading. Discrepancies between this market’s implied probabilities and those offered by analysts can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty surrounding the event’s likely outcome, and can be a signal for further investigation.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders submit bids and asks, and contracts trade whenever there’s a matching price. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating greater perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, displayed on the dashboard, shows the volume of buy and sell orders at different price levels, giving traders insight into potential price movements. As more information becomes available and traders adjust their beliefs, the prices in this market will dynamically reflect the collective assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest daily view count recorded between October 5, 2026, and October 11, 2026. The specific source for determining the daily view count will be publicly available prior to resolution. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and the resulting payouts for winning contracts once the resolution process is complete. This ensures a transparent and verifiable outcome for this market.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding content releases or programming schedules during the October 5-11, 2026, timeframe could shift expectations about viewership. Unexpected news events or cultural moments that capture public attention could also influence viewing habits. Furthermore, shifts in media consumption trends, such as the increasing popularity of streaming services or changes in social media engagement, could play a role. Any data suggesting a significant increase or decrease in anticipated viewership for relevant content would likely cause movement in this market.
