TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 1, 7:20 AM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the performance gap between two baseball teams in an upcoming game. It focuses on the margin of victory, determining whether either team secures a lead exceeding specified run thresholds. Outcomes reflect dominance in the contest rather than simple win or loss.
The event evaluates different run-differential thresholds for both teams in a specific Japan NPB baseball game scheduled for September 1, 2026. Four distinct markets cover varying margins of victory: Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters winning by over 2.5 or 1.5 runs, and Fukuoka Hawks winning by over 1.5 or 2.5 runs. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team achieves the corresponding run-differential threshold in the game as originally scheduled. All markets operate independently, meaning each has its own resolution criteria based solely on the final score difference. The secondary rules clarify that the platform hosting these markets has no official affiliation with the Japan NPB league, and all related trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds in this market often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to unique trader dynamics and the way probabilities are aggregated. While sportsbooks set their spreads based on analytics and risk management, prediction markets let participants bet directly on outcomes, which can lead to tighter or wider spreads depending on recent performance, injuries, or other game-specific factors.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the odds through buying and selling contracts that represent the chances of the Fukuoka Hawks covering the spread. The current implied probability reflects the collective assessment of participants about the team's performance relative to the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters, with price fluctuations driven by new information, such as player injuries or changes in team form.
This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is based on the official game score and whether the Fukuoka Hawks meet the spread condition, providing a clear and objective determination for all participants.
Key signals that could shift this market include starting pitcher announcements, recent team performance trends, injuries to key players, and changes in betting volume on Kalshi. Any development that affects the perceived likelihood of the Fukuoka Hawks covering the spread may cause traders to adjust their positions, influencing the odds in the run-up to the game.