TOTAL VOLUME:

$143.5b

24H VOL:

$195,145,316

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,692,168,434

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,731,064,451

482,647

Markets across

36,631

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,924

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
France vs. Italy
kalshi
predict
polymarket

What is the result of France vs. Italy?

Volume:
$11,213,853

Tie

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 2, 2026

Closed: Oct 2, 4:40 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,252,583
N/A
N/A
$715,614
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw (France vs. Italy)

View
100%
82%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$201,706
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Draw

View
99%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$38,129
$50,126
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

FRA

View
1%
68%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$8,499
$281,035
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

France

View
0%
69%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,226,406
N/A
N/A
$2,765,281
Settled
No
polymarket

France

View
0%
68%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,134,294
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

ITA

View
1%
13%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$9,145
$92,772
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Italy

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,547,571
N/A
N/A
$1,431,009
Settled
No
polymarket

Italy

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$427,362
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the France versus Italy UEFA Nations League match on October 2, 2026, specifically whether the game will end in a draw or result in a win for either team within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Currently, the consensus probability of a draw is 99.0%, while the probability of France winning on October 2, 2026 is 1.0%. This aggregated view combines data from Kalshi, Predict, and Polymarket, and will resolve based on official statistics recognized by UEFA. Keep an eye on the team lineups announced closer to October 2, 2026, as they may offer insight into each team’s strategy for the match.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms utilize the same core resolution logic, focusing on the result within 90 minutes plus stoppage time and employing a tiered source hierarchy for data verification.Primary resolution logic: Official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers (UEFA)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves based on the outcome (win, loss, or draw) within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
  • If the game is postponed, the market remains open until completion.
  • If the game is canceled without a reschedule, win markets resolve to 'No' and draw markets resolve to 'Yes'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Data Availability: If official statistics are unavailable within 2 hours of the match's conclusion, Flashscore data is used. If Flashscore is unavailable, Sofascore is used. If neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting is used. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours, the market resolves 50-50 or to 'Draw' where applicable.
  • Score Revisions: Revisions to officially declared final scores made *after* market resolution will not be considered.
Timing: Resolution will occur within 24 hours of the match's conclusion, contingent on the availability of official or fallback data sources.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for Friday, October 2, 2026 between France and Italy.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the full-time result of the France vs Italy UEFA Nations League soccer match scheduled for October 2, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. If France wins, the 'France' market resolves to Yes. If Italy wins, the 'Italy' market resolves to Yes. If the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform rules. The markets exclusively consider the result within regular time and do not account for outcomes determined in extra time or penalty shootouts.

Predict

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for Friday, October 2, 2026 between France and Italy.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the outcome of the France vs. Italy match. Currently, the consensus view across these platforms indicates a strong expectation for one team to win, with a combined volume of $11,213,853. This allows traders to see how opinions are shifting and compare probabilities across different prediction markets. The dashboard tracks the implied probability of various outcomes, providing a comprehensive overview of the collective wisdom of the crowd regarding this highly anticipated sporting event. We are tracking the overall volume and sentiment surrounding the France vs. Italy match.

Prediction market odds, like those for this market, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets allow traders to freely express their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment diverges from expert analysis. While sportsbooks may incorporate factors like team news and injuries, this market incorporates a wider range of information as assessed by many participants.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or unexpected coaching decisions could all shift the probabilities. Significant shifts in public sentiment, perhaps influenced by pre-match analysis or media coverage, could also drive trading activity. Unexpected weather conditions or controversies surrounding the match could also influence the market. Any developments that alter perceptions of the teams' chances of winning will likely lead to price movements in this market.