TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 05d:14h:12m
Will Forever by The Big Moon have above 3500000 streams during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?
$
Description
This event tracks the performance of a music release over a specific week, focusing on audience engagement through streaming numbers. The outcome depends on whether the release meets certain listener thresholds during the defined period. Data from an independent measurement provider will determine the result.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds of streaming activity for the song "Forever" by The Big Moon during the week of October 30 to November 5, 2026, in the U.S. Each market corresponds to a specific streaming threshold—ranging from 50,000 to 10 million streams. If the reported streams for the song exceed the threshold specified in any given market, that market resolves to "Yes"; otherwise, it resolves to "No". All outcomes are determined by data from Luminate’s API, which is accessed at 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the tracking week. Luminate serves as a neutral metrics provider and does not influence market outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the odds reflected in this market offer a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing beliefs as probabilities. Discrepancies between the market’s implied probabilities and those of analysts can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty regarding the initial viewership of Forever. It’s important to remember that analyst predictions are often based on models and assumptions, whereas this market reflects actual money at stake.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders, and the market price adjusts based on supply and demand. Essentially, the price of a contract representing a specific outcome reflects the probability that outcome will occur, as perceived by the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will climb. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism that continuously updates as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official streaming numbers for the first week of Forever are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of streams across all platforms during the first seven days of the game’s release. The exact figures used for resolution will be sourced from publicly available data and verified to ensure accuracy. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the final, verified stream counts.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Pre-release marketing campaigns, critical reviews, and early player feedback could all influence expectations for Forever’s initial streaming performance. Unexpected technical issues or server problems during the launch could also dampen viewership numbers. Positive word-of-mouth and strong streamer endorsements could conversely boost the game’s popularity and drive up stream counts. Any major news or announcements related to Forever’s development or release will likely cause fluctuations in this market.
