TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 17, 10:32 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether the Flamengo versus Independiente del Valle CONMEBOL Libertadores soccer game will end in a tie after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Currently, the probability of a tie is 70.0%, while the probability of Independiente del Valle winning is 14.0%. Trading is live on Kalshi, and the market will resolve based on the outcome of the match as defined by whether Flamengo wins after regulation time, as per the official result. Keep an eye on the match itself, as the market resolves following the conclusion of regulation time on September 17, 2026, with a final resolution date estimate of September 18, 2026.
Markets resolve based on the outcome of the Flamengo vs Ind. del Valle professional CONMEBOL Libertadores soccer game scheduled for Sep 17, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (excluding extra time or penalties). If Flamengo wins, its market resolves to Yes; if Ind. del Valle wins, its market resolves to Yes; if the game ends in a tie, the Tie market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over 48 hours away from the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price per the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with the Governing League, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders and can differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by supply and demand. If a large number of traders believe Flamengo is likely to win, the price of the “yes” contract will rise, potentially exceeding sportsbook implied probabilities. Conversely, if traders are skeptical, the price will fall. It’s a fascinating comparison of different forecasting approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether Flamengo will win the match in regulation time. The price of the contract fluctuates based on this buying and selling pressure. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts predicting a Flamengo win, the price goes up, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the probability of the outcome as perceived by the market participants, creating a real-time assessment of the event's likelihood.
This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Flamengo vs. Ind. del Valle match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle to 100 if Flamengo wins in regulation time, and 0 if they do not. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing sports authority, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand the market’s settlement.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the match takes place. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Flamengo or Ind. del Valle would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match venue or referee assignments might also play a role. Monitoring sports news and analysis leading up to Sep 18, 2026 will be crucial for understanding potential market shifts.