This event group covers a professional Super Lig soccer match between Fatih Karagümrük SK and Fenerbahçe SK scheduled for March 13, 2026. Markets are offered on Polymarket (three binary outcomes: Fenerbahçe win, Karagümrük win, draw) and Kalshi (one ternary outcome covering all three results). Resolution depends on the final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use identical match outcome criteria (90 minutes plus stoppage time, no extra time or penalties) and defer to the same primary authority (TFF/official organizers), with consistent postponement and cancellation protocols.
Primary resolution logic:
Turkish Football Federation (TFF) official statistics (https://tff.org/); fallback to consensus of credible reporting if official statistics not published within 2 hours of match conclusion
Core resolution logic:
Match outcome is determined after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only; extra time and penalties are excluded
Fenerbahçe SK win resolves Yes on Polymarket Fenerbahçe market; Fatih Karagümrük SK win resolves Yes on Polymarket Karagümrük market; draw resolves Yes on Polymarket draw market
On Kalshi, any of the three outcomes (Karagümrük win, Fenerbahçe win, or tie) resolves the single ternary market to Yes
If match is postponed, all markets remain open until the match is completed and final outcome is determined
If match is canceled with no make-up game, Polymarket markets resolve No; Kalshi tie market resolves Yes (representing no winner determined)
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Postponement: If the match is postponed, all markets remain open and unresolved until the match is rescheduled and completed. Resolution occurs only after the rescheduled match concludes.
Cancellation without make-up: If the match is canceled entirely with no make-up game scheduled, Polymarket markets (Fenerbahçe win, Karagümrük win) resolve No; Kalshi tie market resolves Yes. This represents the absence of a decisive outcome.
Official statistics delay: If TFF does not publish final match statistics within 2 hours of match conclusion, resolution may proceed using consensus from credible sports reporting sources (e.g., major sports news outlets, league databases).
Extra time or penalties: Resolution is based exclusively on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If the match goes to extra time or penalties (e.g., in a cup competition), those results are not considered; only the 90+stoppage time score determines the outcome.
Timing:
Resolution occurs within 2 hours after the match concludes (or within 2 hours after the rescheduled match if postponed). If official statistics are delayed, resolution may occur after credible reporting consensus is established, but no later than the end of the same calendar day.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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