TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Above 11.75M
- Kalshi
Above 11.75M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 5, 2026
Time left: 02d:11h:09m
Will Drake have above 11.75M daily views at any point during October 26, 2026 - November 1, 2026?
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Description
This event tracks whether Drake achieves specific levels of global daily views on YouTube within a defined timeframe. Each outcome represents a different view count threshold that needs to be surpassed for the market to resolve positively.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds of global daily YouTube views achieved by Drake between October 26, 2026, and November 1, 2026. For any outcome to resolve as 'Yes,' Drake must surpass the specified view count threshold on at least one day within the period, as measured from a New York IP address. All markets share the same observation window and geographical measurement standard, ensuring consistency across thresholds. The event uses YouTube Charts for verification, with the understanding that YouTube has not endorsed these markets. Each outcome corresponds to a distinct numerical threshold, ranging incrementally from above 11 million to above 15 million views.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective wisdom stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of factors than traditional analyses, incorporating real-time information and diverse perspectives. While analysts might focus on past performance and announced promotions, the market can quickly adjust to unexpected news or shifts in public interest. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates a different outcome than experts, or where analysts haven’t fully accounted for all relevant variables.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current market depth and order book are visible on the Kalshi interface, allowing traders to see the best available prices for buying and selling.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the highest daily view count for Drake’s content between October 26, 2026, and November 1, 2026, will be determined based on publicly available data from major video platforms. The resolution will reflect the peak viewership achieved during that period, establishing which outcome aligns with the actual data. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s result.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding Drake’s content releases, such as new music videos or collaborations, would likely cause movement. Unexpected viral trends featuring Drake’s music or appearances could also drive up view counts. Conversely, negative publicity or controversies surrounding Drake could potentially dampen viewership. Shifts in platform algorithms affecting content visibility, or major competing events capturing public attention, are other factors that could influence the outcome of this market.
