TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Best-of-3 Dota 2 match between Aurora and MOUZ in the PGL Wallachia Group Stage, scheduled for March 7, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET. Markets span match outcome, individual game winners, handicaps, and granular in-game statistics (kills, Roshan kills, barracks destruction, rampages, ultra kills, day/night cycle timing, and first blood).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All Polymarket and Kalshi markets apply identical resolution logic: Dotabuff as primary source, 2-hour fallback window, 7-day delay threshold, 50-50 for cancellations/forfeits-before-play/incomplete games, and full resolution for completed games including post-play forfeits.
Primary resolution logic:
Official Dotabuff (https://www.dotabuff.com); credible reporting with video evidence if Dotabuff unavailable within 2 hours of event conclusionCore resolution logic:
- Match outcome (BO3): Aurora wins if they secure 2 games; MOUZ wins if they secure 2 games
- Individual game winners: Resolved based on that specific game's winner as recorded on Dotabuff
- Handicap (AUR -1.5 vs MOUZ +1.5): Aurora wins if they win 2+ more games than MOUZ; otherwise MOUZ wins
- Games Total O/U 2.5: Over if 3+ games played; Under if fewer than 3
- In-game statistics (kills, Roshan, barracks, rampages, ultra kills): Resolved based on completed game data; 50-50 if game incomplete or never played
- Day/night cycle: Resolved based on in-game clock at moment of Ancient destruction or forfeit; hero abilities do not affect base cycle determination
- First blood: Resolved to team securing first blood if game completed; 50-50 if game incomplete or never occurred
- Forfeit/disqualification/walkover before play begins: 50-50 resolution
- Forfeit/disqualification/walkover after play begins: Resolves to team that wins; if clinching game forfeited, counts as completed match
- Game remakes: Resolution based on remade game only; prior partial play discarded
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Match Cancellation or 7+ Day Delay: All markets resolve to 50-50 if match is canceled entirely or delayed beyond 7 days from scheduled date (March 7, 2026) without play beginning
- Incomplete Game with Forfeit After Play Begins: For match outcome and handicap: resolves to team that wins. For individual game markets and in-game stats: resolves based on game state prior to stoppage; if condition not met, resolves to No or 50-50 as applicable
- Game Never Played (Forfeit Before Play): All game-specific markets (Game 1/2/3 winners, in-game stats, first blood, day/night) resolve to 50-50
- Remade Game: All resolution based on remade game only; prior partial play or first blood before remake is discarded unless explicitly stated otherwise (e.g., First Blood in Game X resolves to team that secured it prior to remake if it occurred, else based on remade game)
- Dotabuff Delay Beyond 2 Hours: If Dotabuff has not published final results within 2 hours of event conclusion, consensus of credible reporting and video evidence may be used as fallback source
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon completion of the match (when one team wins 2 games in BO3 format) or upon official cancellation/delay determination. Fallback source (credible reporting) may be consulted up to 2 hours after event conclusion if Dotabuff unavailable.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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