TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Discord IPO by __?
kalshi
polymarket

Will Discord IPO by June 1, 2027?

Total volume:
$157,749
Volume 24h:
$104
66%
Liquidity:
$3,943
72%
Open interest:
$88,088
0.11%

Before Jun 1, 2027

 - Kalshi

Before Jun 1, 2027 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jun 1, 2027

When will Discord IPO?

57%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 54¢ buys you 185 shares | Odds: 57% Total Payout: $185 | Net Profit: $85 Multiplier: 1.85x | ROI: 85% | APY: 166% 229 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Jun 1, 2027

Trade
57%
Yes 54¢No 54¢
8¢
N/A
$1,608
0%
0%
$872
7mo 2w 5d
active
kalshi

Before May 1, 2027

Trade
39%
8%
Yes 39¢No 69¢
8¢
N/A
$644
0.62%
1%
$633
7mo 2w 5d
active
kalshi

Before Apr 1, 2027

Trade
28%
Yes 28¢No 78¢
6¢
N/A
$1,478
0%
1%
$680
7mo 2w 5d
active
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Trade
18%
Yes 16¢No 87¢
3¢
N/A
$15,436
0%
5%
$7,946
7mo 2w 5d
active
polymarket

December 31

Trade
5%
1%
Yes 6¢No 96¢
2¢
$1,679
$8,796
0%
6%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
13.3%
Yes 11¢No 91.5¢
Avg: 2.5¢Max: 3¢
kalshi

Before Mar 1, 2027

Trade
13%
Yes 21¢No 87¢
8¢
N/A
$1,109
0%
48%
$456
7mo 2w 5d
active
kalshi

Before Feb 1, 2027

Trade
10%
Yes 16¢No 92¢
8¢
N/A
$3,095
0%
12%
$1,515
7mo 2w 5d
active
kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2026

Trade
6%
Yes 9¢No 95¢
4¢
N/A
$2,776
0%
8%
$1,420
7mo 2w 5d
active
polymarket

November 30

Trade
3%
Yes 3.7¢No 97.1¢
0.8¢
$1,298
$3,031
0%
10%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4.6%
Yes 6.4¢No 96.1¢
Avg: 2.4¢Max: 4¢
kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$2,939
0%
0%
$1,614
7mo 2w 5d
active
polymarket

October 31

Trade
2%
Yes 3.6¢No 99.4¢
3¢
$965
$867
0%
0%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.6%
Yes 3.8¢No 99.7¢
Avg: 3.5¢Max: 4¢
kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2025

View
96%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$23
N/A
N/A
$23
7mo 2w 5d
No
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2025

View
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
7mo 2w 5d
No
kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2025

View
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,034
N/A
N/A
$704
7mo 2w 5d
No
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2026

View
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,915
N/A
N/A
$2,088
7mo 2w 5d
No
kalshi

Before Mar 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$40,080
N/A
N/A
$36,655
7mo 2w 5d
No
kalshi

Before Apr 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17,761
N/A
N/A
$11,537
7mo 2w 5d
No
kalshi

Before May 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,873
N/A
N/A
$4,766
7mo 2w 5d
No
kalshi

Before Jun 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,107
N/A
N/A
$2,045
7mo 2w 5d
No
kalshi

Before Feb 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,406
N/A
N/A
$4,339
7mo 2w 5d
No
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,909
N/A
N/A
$3,387
7mo 2w 5d
No
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,397
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Before Aug 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,887
N/A
N/A
$3,472
7mo 2w 5d
No
kalshi

Before Jul 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,124
N/A
N/A
$3,089
7mo 2w 5d
No
kalshi

Before Sep 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,450
N/A
N/A
$845
7mo 2w 5d
No
Total markets: 25 of 26

Description

This group forecasts whether Discord will have an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by a specified date. An IPO involves offering shares of the company to the public for the first time, allowing anyone to invest. The markets track various dates for potential IPO completion.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi offers multiple date-specific 'Yes' resolutions, while Polymarket includes a 'No' resolution if Discord is acquired.Hero tip: Be aware of the acquisition risk on Polymarket, as it leads to a 'No' resolution. Kalshi markets resolve 'Yes' on any IPO before the specified date.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to "Yes" if Discord shares are listed and open for trading by the specified date. Resolves to "No" if Discord is acquired. Primary resolution source is official filings and announcements from Discord and the relevant securities exchange. "This market will resolve to "No." if Discord is acquired by another company that is already public."
  • Kalshi: Resolves to "Yes" if Discord confirms an IPO before any of the listed dates. Multiple date-specific markets exist. No 'No' resolution is explicitly defined; failure to IPO by the date simply leaves the market open.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Discord shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Discord is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Discord and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Discord; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

An IPO is confirmed upon any of three triggering events: SEC effectiveness of the Form S-1 registration statement, pricing of the offering, or assignment of a ticker symbol by a securities exchange. Once any of these events occurs, the market resolves to Yes immediately, regardless of when actual trading begins. The event tracks confirmation across multiple time windows spanning from May 1, 2026 through June 1, 2027, with each window representing a distinct resolution date. If confirmation occurs before any given deadline, that market resolves affirmatively even if trading is delayed beyond that date.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, the Discord IPO market dashboard tracks the probability of a Discord initial public offering occurring by a specific date. This aggregation of multiple platforms provides a consensus view of the likelihood, currently showing a combined volume of $157,749. The dashboard displays price feeds from both venues, allowing traders to compare expectations and identify potential arbitrage opportunities. Currently, Polymarket shows a chance of 69, while Kalshi indicates 12.5, reflecting differing opinions on the timing and likelihood of the IPO. This market aims to synthesize these diverse perspectives into a single, informative resource.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ that can differ from traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by biases or incentives, while prediction markets incentivize participants to express their true beliefs through financial stakes. While analyst forecasts for Discord’s IPO timeline vary, this market provides a real-time assessment based on collective trader intelligence. The current volume of $4 suggests active engagement and a dynamic assessment of the IPO’s probability. It’s important to note that both sources offer valuable insights, and discrepancies can highlight areas of uncertainty.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may differ due to variations in trader demographics, market design, and liquidity. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with potentially varying levels of expertise and access to information regarding Discord’s IPO plans. Furthermore, the specific rules and fee structures on each platform can influence trading behavior. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Discord IPO by December 31, 2026? at 5.0%, while Kalshi leans toward When will Discord IPO? at 57.0%, demonstrating these differing perspectives. These price discrepancies create opportunities for arbitrage, where traders can profit from price differences across platforms.

This market resolves around Jun 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether Discord has officially launched an initial public offering before that date. The outcome will be determined by examining official announcements from Discord, filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and reports from reputable financial news sources. The final price will reflect whether a qualifying IPO occurred, providing a clear and objective assessment of the market’s prediction. Traders should monitor these sources as the resolution date approaches.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from Discord regarding IPO plans, changes in the company’s financial performance, and broader market conditions affecting tech IPOs are all key catalysts. Positive news, such as strong revenue growth or a favorable IPO market, could increase the probability of an IPO and drive up prices. Conversely, negative news, like regulatory hurdles or a downturn in the tech sector, could decrease the probability and lower prices. Any major developments in Discord’s business strategy or ownership structure could also influence trading activity and shift the market’s outlook.