TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$129,159,707

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,442,132,418

404,744

Markets across

30,489

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,691

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM?

Volume:
$6,627,625

Pumas UNAM

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 22, 2026

Closed: Jul 22, 1:05 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Pumas UNAM

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,766,384
N/A
N/A
$1,475,021
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Pumas de la UNAM

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$167,911
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Toluca

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,327,131
N/A
N/A
$1,260,168
Settled
No
polymarket

Deportivo Toluca FC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$197,254
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,091,896
N/A
N/A
$618,775
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$77,050
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks whether Pumas de la UNAM will win their Liga MX match against Deportivo Toluca FC on July 21, 2026. The aggregated consensus probability for Pumas de la UNAM winning stands at 100.0%, with data drawn from Polymarket and Kalshi, and resolutions will be confirmed via https://ligamx.net/cancha/partidos. A key date to monitor is July 22, 2026, the estimated resolution date for this match outcome. The second outcome, a Deportivo Toluca FC win, has a probability of 0.1%.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket explicitly handles cancellation by resolving the draw market to YES and both win markets to NO, while Kalshi provides no cancellation guidance, leaving the resolution path unclear if the match does not occur.Hero tip: Verify with Kalshi whether a canceled match resolves those markets to NO, remains open, or voids. On Polymarket, understand that cancellation creates an unusual asymmetric outcome where only the draw market resolves YES. Confirm the July 21, 2026 match is officially scheduled before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three separate binary markets (Toluca win YES/NO, Draw YES/NO, Pumas win YES/NO). Cancellation with no make-up: draw market resolves YES, both win markets resolve NO. Postponement: markets remain open until completion. Resolution source: official Liga MX statistics within 2 hours post-match, or credible reporting consensus if delayed.
  • Kalshi: Three separate binary markets (Toluca win YES, Pumas win YES, Tie YES). No explicit cancellation clause provided. All three markets reference the match 'originally scheduled for Jul 21, 2026' and resolve based on 90 minutes plus stoppage time, but the platform does not specify what happens if the match is canceled or postponed.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Liga MX game, scheduled for Tuesday, July 21, 2026 between Deportivo Toluca FC and Pumas de la UNAM.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the final result of the Toluca vs Pumas UNAM Liga MX match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Each outcome—Toluca victory, Pumas UNAM victory, or a tie—resolves its corresponding market to Yes based on the actual match result. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than two weeks away, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with standard rules.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market data across Polymarket and Kalshi for the Toluca vs. Pumas match, allowing you to monitor real-time odds and trading activity on the same event across multiple venues. Traders on each platform independently price their contracts based on their own assessments of the likely outcome, creating a cross-platform view of market sentiment. The combined volume and price movements reflect how the broader prediction market community is positioning ahead of the match. By tracking both platforms simultaneously, you gain insight into consensus expectations while spotting divergences that may signal trading opportunities or shifting confidence in either team's chances.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price outcomes differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, whereas prediction markets rely on traders' collective beliefs to discover prices. Prediction market odds often reflect longer-term, less-biased estimates because traders risk real capital on their forecasts. Sportsbook odds may incorporate sharp-money moves and public betting patterns that skew prices away from true probability. Comparing this market's odds to major sportsbook lines can reveal whether prediction traders are more or less bullish than the betting public, helping you identify potential value.

Key catalysts include team news such as injuries to star players, lineup changes, or managerial decisions that alter competitive balance. Recent form, head-to-head records, and league standings leading into the match will influence trader sentiment. Weather conditions, venue factors, and rest days between fixtures can also shift expectations. Major betting syndicates or sharp money entering either platform may trigger rapid repricing. Social media sentiment, expert analysis, and any off-field controversies involving either club could sway the market. Close monitoring of official team communications and sports media coverage will help you stay ahead of price movements.