TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 11:35 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Jackson Olson and their partner will be eliminated from Dancing with the Stars Season 35 before October 28, 2026. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to this outcome. The market resolves based on official elimination announcements from Dancing with the Stars, as determined by the resolution source. Keep an eye on the results of the November 11, 2026 episode, as that is the last date for elimination before the market’s resolution date of October 28, 2026.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified celebrity and their partner are officially eliminated from Dancing with the Stars Season 35 at any point before October 28, 2026. Elimination is defined to include being voted off, evicted, knocked out, removed from further contention, voluntary withdrawal, disqualification, or producer removal. The declaration of elimination must be made through official program broadcasts, the show's website, verified social media accounts, or official press releases. If the season is canceled without any eliminations being declared, all markets resolve to 'No'. Multiple simultaneous eliminations count, and an initial elimination counts even if the contestant later returns. However, eliminations immediately reversed in the same episode, temporary suspensions, medical holds, or finishing as runner-up in the finale do not count. The 'None' market resolves to 'Yes' only if no celebrities are eliminated before the specified date.
Frequently asked questions
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially differing from individual analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on subjective opinions or specific criteria, this market aggregates the views of many traders, creating a more diverse perspective. It's common to see discrepancies, especially when there's significant uncertainty or disagreement about the likely outcome. For example, if polls suggest a certain contestant is favored, this market might still show different probabilities based on traders’ assessments of factors not captured in those polls.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of each contestant being eliminated. The price of a contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust, providing a real-time assessment of the likelihood of different scenarios. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new data and reflect changing expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will reflect which contestant was officially eliminated from Dancing with the Stars during Episode 8, as announced by the show’s producers. The result will be based on the official broadcast and reporting from reliable entertainment news sources, ensuring a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Performance during the live show, including judges’ scores and audience reactions, will undoubtedly influence trading activity. News or social media buzz surrounding a contestant – positive or negative – could also shift sentiment. Unexpected injuries or personal events affecting a contestant’s ability to perform are additional catalysts. Finally, any changes to the show’s format or judging criteria could also move the market as traders reassess the probabilities of elimination.
